02/16/2024

Seven new sunspot groups appeared over the past week, February 8-14,
two on February 8, three on February 10, and two more on February 13
and 14.

Then on February 15 three more sunspots emerged.

Now this is a personal opinion, but from recent numbers I suspect
that we may at the peak of Solar Cycle 25 or just prior to the peak.
We won't know when the actual peak occurred until six months after.

Average daily sunspot number declined from 142.3 to 134.6, but
average daily solar flux increased from 165.5 to 190.

I don't know why the solar numbers were so seemingly out of whack,
but average daily sunspot number declined as average daily solar
flux rose, by a lot.

Average daily planetary A index rose from 5.1 to 7.4, while middle
latitude numbers from 4.4 to 6.1.

The most active day was February 11 with planetary A index rising to
15, but that is hardly stormy. This was caused by an unexpected CME
impact at 0211 UTC according to Spaceweather.com.

So, what is the outlook for the next few weeks?

Concerning solar flux, it seems we are currently in the midst of a
peak over the next few days at 185 and 182 on February 15-16, then
another short term peak at 170 on March 3-10.

On February 17-23 the forecast sees the flux at 175, 172, 170, 165,
175, 165 and 160, then 150 on February 24-28, then 155, 160 and 165
on February 29 through March 2, then 170 on March 3-10, 165 on March
11-3, 170 on March 14, 160 on March 15-19, then 162, 165 and 160 on
March 20-22.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 16-18, 8 on February
19, 5 on February 20-25, then 8 and 7 on February 26-27, then 5 on
February 28 through March 23.

This is the same data that appeared in the ARRL Letter on Thursday,
which was the report from February 14.

Unfortunately, NOAA did not post the updated forecast on Thursday.
Thursday evening, I phoned the NOAA forecast desk, and they didn't
have the data from US Air Force. I then phoned the 557 Weather Wing
at Offutt Air Force Base and was told they had a major network
outage Thursday afternoon, and the data may be lost.

Fortunately, the phone numbers at both locations are answered 24-7.

If you need an updated forecast, check:

https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt[1]

It is normally updated every day after 2200 UTC.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - February 15, 2024 from OK1HH:

"Over the past week, we saw the transition of two large active
regions with complex magnetic configurations on the solar disk:
AR3575 followed by AR3576, which will be at the western limb of the
disk on February 16.

"More massive flares, including proton flares accompanied by CME
were observed in both regions. Protons from the flares bombarded the
Earth's atmosphere for most of the days. CMEs, however, hit the
Earth with little or no impact. This included a strong X3.4 class
solar flare followed by a S2 class radiation storm on 9th February.
Energetic solar protons impacted the upper layers of the Earth's
atmosphere and caused mainly polar cap absorption (PCA). This
significantly increased the attenuation of radio signals at high
latitudes.

"We could also guess whether the CMEs were just delayed since the
eruptions of 9 and 10 February and would not arrive until 13
February, or whether they would miss the Earth. NASA guessed that
they would arrive. But the correct answer was they missed, which was
confirmed by the more or less calm development on 14 February.

"After the sunset of the two large active regions AR3575 and AR3576,
solar activity will decrease. However, helioseismological
observations indicate the presence of active regions on the far side
of the Sun. After their ascent to the solar disk, solar activity
will increase again since early March. Solar activity should be
highest between March 3 and 10. Meanwhile, geomagnetic activity
should continue to be low. Therefore, we expect an improvement in
shortwave propagation conditions.

"F.K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH, http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/ "

This weekend is the CW portion of the ARRL International DX contest.
Details can be found at:

https://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx[2]

Two articles about a CME and flares:

https://bit.ly/3OHvtpZ[3]

https://bit.ly/49zgoia[4]

Three days of sunspots:

https://bit.ly/3SJhbGi[5]

Multiple pictures of Sunspot region 13585:

https://bit.ly/3UFVhGQ[6]

Bob, KB1DK, from Connecticut wrote:

"During the last two weeks, activity on 10 meter SSB was bustling,
and included many POTA, SOTA, and mobile stations in Europe. In
fact, I heard Europeans on 12 meters saying they moved to that band
because 10 became so busy. Propagation on 10 has been very good from
southern New England, resulting in multiple QSOs with India and New
Zealand. QSOs with the middle east are almost routine now.

"My occasional fixed mobile operating has been extremely productive
and satisfying. I strongly recommend taking advantage of these great
conditions on 10 meters while we have them."

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[13]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14] .

Sunspot numbers for February 8 through 14 2024 were 149, 105, 146,
144, 153, 122, and 123, with a mean of 134.6. 10.7 cm flux was 185,
183.4, 193.8, 180.4, 208.3, 194.8, and 184.1, with a mean of 190.
Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 6, 5, 15, 4, 10, and 7, with a
mean of 7.4. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 4, 12, 4, 8, and 6,
with a mean of 6.1.
ÿ


[1] https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt
[2] https://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx
[3] https://bit.ly/3OHvtpZ
[4] https://bit.ly/49zgoia
[5] https://bit.ly/3SJhbGi
[6] https://bit.ly/3UFVhGQ
[7] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[12] http://k9la.us/
[13] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

02/23/2024

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0237 UTC/22 FEBRUARY 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"A solar filament has erupted from the northwest solar quadrant and
a component of the predominately westward associated CME is expected
to arrive at the Earth during the second half of 24-Feb. G1 conditions, with the chance of G2 periods are possible during the second half of 24-Feb and first half of 25-Feb. Modeling shows the bulk of the CME missing the Earth.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 24-25 FEBRUARY 2024."

Spaceweather.com[1] wrote on February 22:

"TWO MAJOR SOLAR FLARES: Giant sunspot AR3590 just unleashed two
major X-class solar flares. The double blast approximately coincided
with a widely reported outage of cell phone service; however,
experts agree that the flares were probably not responsible. More
flares are in the offing. The sunspot has an unstable 'delta-class'
magnetic field, and it is turning toward Earth."

Sunspot numbers and solar flux values dropped over the past week,
with average daily sunspot numbers down from 134.6 to 84.4 and
average daily solar flux dropping from 190 to 164.

Geomagnetic conditions were very quiet. Planetary A index declined
from the low value of 7.4 to 4.4, and middle latitude A index from
6.1 to 3.5.

Only four new sunspot groups appeared, three on February 15 and one
on February 18.

Spaceweather.com says all their content is written by humans, with
no Artificial Intelligence at all.

I decided to ask an AI bot when Solar Cycle 25 will peak:

From Gemini AI bot:

"There are two main perspectives on when Solar Cycle 25 will reach
its maximum:

"Original prediction:

"An expert panel convened by NOAA, NASA, and ISES in 2019 predicted
a peak in July 2025 with a maximum sunspot number of 115.

"This prediction assumed a similar strength to the weak Solar Cycle
24.

"Revised prediction:

"In October 2023, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC)
released a revised prediction based on observed activity. This new
prediction suggests a faster rise and higher peak, likely between
January and October 2024, with a sunspot number between 137 and 173.

"However, it's important to note that the timing could still fall
within the broad error range of November 2024 to March 2026.

"So, the answer depends on which prediction you consider:

"Original prediction: July 2025

"Revised prediction: Between January and October 2024 (more likely
than July 2025).

"It's important to stay updated on the latest information as
scientists continue to monitor the Sun's activity. You can find more
details and updates on the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
website:

"https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression[2]

"END AI BOT CONTENT."

I have bookmarked that last link.

ISES stands for the International Space Environment Service.

Here is a revised outlook for the next month, from USAF via NOAA.

Predicted solar flux is 175 on February 23, 180 on February 24-29,
then 160 and 165 on March 1-2, 170 on March 3-9, 165 on March 10-16,
then 162, 160, and 165 on March 17-19, 170 on March 20-21, 172 on
March 22-23, 165 on March 24-26, and 155, 160, and 165 on March
27-29, and 170 on March 30 into the first week in April.

Predicted planetary A index is 6, 5, 20 and 10 on February 23-26,
and 5 on February 27 through March 23, 8 and 7 on March 24-25, and 5
on March 26 through the first week in April.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - February 23-29, 2024 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"During the last seven days, based on helioseismological
observations we first expected the rise of a larger active region at
the northeastern limb of the solar disk.

"Meanwhile, gradually most of the sunspot groups on its western half
have faded, whereby the solar flux has dropped to 152.

"The larger active region came out, was designated AR3590, and is
large enough to observe with the naked eye (in relation to the area
over 700 millionths of the solar disk), for example, using a solar
eclipse filter. However, its beta-gamma magnetic configuration was
not conducive to larger flares. All the more surprising were two
successive X-class flares: X1.8 on 21 February with a maximum at
2307 UT and X.1.7 on 22 February with a maximum at 0632 UT. However,
they were short-lived and not accompanied by CMEs. During the first
of these, shortwave propagation subsided, particularly in the
western USA and the Pacific (the Dellinger effect).

"Expect an increase in solar X-ray and ultraviolet radiation in the
coming days and mostly geomagnetically quiet conditions. As Spring
approaches, shortwave propagation will be mostly above average or
even better."

K7BTW posted this to the Western Washington DX Club email list on
February 20:

"Fantastic band conditions.

"If you're not taking advantage of these band conditions, you are
missing a lot. On 20 meters FT8 in the last few minutes around 8pm
(0400 UTC) I worked Middle East stations in Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi
Arabia, and Qatar, plus several UN and many Russians. Over the pole
conditions are incredible.

"Take advantage of the sunspot cycle.ÿ We know what it will be like
in 5 years!"

Jeff, N8II wrote on February 16:

"If we are at the peak, I would think this is a poor cycle.

"Not long ago the flux dropped below 130 briefly.

"10 meter conditions are excellent now with much better conditions
to East Asia in the evening than the first 3 weeks of January.

"Today at 2400 UTC 10 meters was open well to Taiwan working BX5AA
and also a BD4 around 0030 UTC. Japanese signals were excellent
until just before 0100 UTC. I heard 8R7X in Guyana running many
Japanese until 0100 UTC on 10 CW."

Here in Seattle where I (K7RA) live we have always had a pipeline to
Japan, which at times can seem overwhelming.

Reader David Moore sent this article from the European Space Agency:

https://tinyurl.com/bdz3uxnp[3]

Articles about powerful Solar Flares:

https://tinyurl.com/5ysj6xyt[4]

https://tinyurl.com/vkyfpyr4[5]

https://tinyurl.com/mrxa7uhb[6]

GeoNews article about the Solar max:

https://tinyurl.com/53zena9c[7]

Big sunspot AR3590 visible to the eye:

https://tinyurl.com/mrbw3fms[8]

The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/T292oXH12Hk[9]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[10]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[11] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[12] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[13] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[14] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[15] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[16]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[17] .

Sunspot numbers for February 15 through 21 2024 were 151, 97, 100,
84, 64, 50, and 45, with a mean of 84.4. 10.7 cm flux was 178.3,
168.8, 169.9, 156.5, 152.1, 152.6, and 169.9, with a mean of 164.
Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 4, 6, 3, 6, and 4, with a
mean of 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 4, 4, 1, 5, and 3,
with a mean of 3.3.
ÿ


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
[3] https://tinyurl.com/bdz3uxnp
[4] https://tinyurl.com/5ysj6xyt
[5] https://tinyurl.com/vkyfpyr4
[6] https://tinyurl.com/mrxa7uhb
[7] https://tinyurl.com/53zena9c
[8] https://tinyurl.com/mrbw3fms
[9] https://youtu.be/T292oXH12Hk
[10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[11] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[13] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[14] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[15] http://k9la.us/
[16] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[17] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

03/01/2024

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2208 UTC/29 FEBRUARY 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"A filament eruption was observed at 28/0855UT from the solar
southeast quadrant. The associated CME has been determined to
contain an Earth-directed component, with an arrival to Earth's
magnetosphere at 02/1100 UTC +/- 12 hours. G1 geomagnetic conditions
are expected.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 02-03 MARCH 2024."

Seven new sunspot groups emerged this week, four on February 23, one
on February 25, another on February 26 and one more on February 28.

Solar activity increased this reporting week, February 22-28,
compared to the week before. Average daily sunspot number rose from
84.4 to 108.4, and solar flux from 164 to 175.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet, though the numbers rose.
Planetary A index went from 4.4 to 8.4, and middle latitude numbers
from 3.3 to 7.4.

The predicted solar flux is 160, 155, and 160 on March 1-3, 165 on
March 4-5, 160 and 165 on March 6-7, 165 on March 8-9, 168 on March
10, then 165 on March 11-12, 160 on March 13-14, then 168 and 172 on
March 15-16, then 175, 175 and 178 on March 17-19, 180 on March
20-24, and 175 on March 25-26, then 180 and 175 on March 27-28, 170
on March 29-30, 172 on March 31 to April 1, 170 on April 2, and 165
on April 3-5.
ÿ
The predicted planetary A index is 8, 12, 12 and 10 on March 1-4,
then 5 on March 5-23, then 15, 12 and 12 on March 24-26, and 5 on
March 27 to mid-April.

Spaceweather.com[1] reported on giant sunspot AR3590:ÿ "In only 23
hours spanning February 21-22, the active region unleashed three
powerful X-class solar flares (X1.8, X1.7 and X6.3). The X6.3 flare
is the strongest of Solar Cycle 25, so far, and the most powerful
flare since the great solar storms of September 2017."

Because there were no CMEs, there were no geomagnetic storms, but
extreme ultraviolet radiation ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere
and caused several shortwave blackouts over Hawaii and Australia on
February 21-22.

Sunspot group AR3590 is the largest of the current solar cycle.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - February 29, 2024 from OK1HH:

"Over the past seven days, we have seen the deflection of an active
region of AR3590 on the Sun, 760 millionths of the size of the solar
disk. On February 25, it already occupied an area of 1450
millionths, making it the largest group of spots so far since the
beginning of the 25th cycle. It produced its largest and extra
proton flares on February 21-22, including three X-class flares in
23 hours. The largest of these, X6.3 on 22 February, with a maximum
at 2324 UT, was the most important flare since the beginning of
Solar Cycle 25.

"Proton flares were no exception and caused an absorption in the
polar cap (PCA). The first of these was recorded on 9 February in
the already setting region AR3575. At the same time, there was a
region AR3576 in the southeast of the solar disk, which will rise
again in the next few days, so we do not have to worry about a
decrease in solar activity.

"With the exception of the unsettled days of February 25-27, the
geomagnetic field was mostly calm. We expect a similar pattern in
the coming weeks. Ideally, the mostly calm development could last
until the Spring Equinox. If this happens, shortwave propagation
conditions will be mostly above average."

This weekend is the ARRL International DX SSB contest. For details
see:

https://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx[2]

Some articles about solar basics:

https://www.ktvh.com/news/weather-wise/weather-wise-sunspots[3]

https://bit.ly/49AmNKf[4]

https://bit.ly/3V0biHJ[5]

https://bit.ly/3wE1Orx[6]

https://star-hunter.ru/en/sunspots-2024-02-28/[7]

Popular Science article about a Solar Minima:

https://www.popsci.com/science/sun-quiet/[8]

I do not trust the data or the correlations in this article, but
there is some interesting content here:

https://bit.ly/48Ablxc[9]

Latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/V-PQSkYYEB4[10]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[11]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[12] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[13] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[14] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[15] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[16] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[17]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[18] .

Sunspot numbers for February 22 through 28 2024 were 46, 116, 106,
114, 133, 103, and 127, with a mean of 106.4. 10.7 cm flux was
173.3, 172.9, 179.2, 180.8, 171.7, 168.3, and 179.1, with a mean of
175. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 3, 7, 13, 11, 13, and 6,
with a mean of 8.4. Middle latitude A index was 6, 2, 6, 14, 10, 9,
and 5, with a mean of 7.4.

ÿ


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx
[3] https://www.ktvh.com/news/weather-wise/weather-wise-sunspots
[4] https://bit.ly/49AmNKf
[5] https://bit.ly/3V0biHJ
[6] https://bit.ly/3wE1Orx
[7] https://star-hunter.ru/en/sunspots-2024-02-28/
[8] https://www.popsci.com/science/sun-quiet/
[9] https://bit.ly/48Ablxc
[10] https://youtu.be/V-PQSkYYEB4
[11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[12] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[13] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[14] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[16] http://k9la.us/
[17] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[18] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

03/08/2024

Until March 6, new sunspot groups emerged daily over the past
reporting week, February 29 through March 6.

One new sunspot group appeared every day on February 29 through
March 3, then two new groups on March 4 and another on March 5.

It seems odd, but average daily sunspot number was about the same
(changing from 106.4 to 106.7), but the average daily solar flux had
a substantial drop, from 175 to 147.4.

Average daily planetary A index was up from 8.4 to 10, while middle
latitude numbers rose from 7.4 to 8.

The March 3 planetary A index was 29. Spaceweather.com[1] reported a G2 geomagnetic storm at 0930 UTC. On March 7 they said NOAA expects a
minor storm on March 9.

The solar flux forecast sees a short term peak at 180 on March 21-23
and another on April 17-19.

Predicted solar flux is 140 on March 8-9, 145 on March 10-12, then
140 and 135 on March 13-14, then 170 on March 15-16, then 165, 160,
170 and 175 on March 17-20, 180 on March 21-23, 175 on March 24-25,
170 on March 26-27, 160 on March 28-29, then 165 and 145 on March
30-31, then 140 on April 1-2, 135 on April 3-8, and 140, 160, 170,
170, 165 and 160 on April 9-14.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on March 8-10, 5 on March 11-23,
then 15, 12, 12, 5, 10, and 8 on March 24-29, and 5 on March 30
through April 5, then 12 and 10 on April 6-7, and 5 on April 8
through the middle of the month and beyond.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - March 7, 2024 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:
ÿ
"Active region AR3590 which swelled to the largest of the 25th solar
cycle in February and where the largest flare was observed, was
located on the northwestern limb of the disk in early March,
whereupon it was observed by the Mars rover Perseverance from Jezero
Crater (Jezero means Lake in Czech).

"From the solar flare on February 28, the CME arrived at Earth on
March 3 - one day later than predicted. It triggered a G3 class
geomagnetic disturbance, which began by developing a positive storm
phase with a significant increase in MUF. It continued over the next
three days in a negative phase with a significant decrease in MUF
and an increase in attenuation, especially in the polar regions.

"Neither major flares nor major geomagnetic activity are expected in
the next few days. Therefore, propagation will gradually improve to
slightly above average. We expect a significant improvement around
the equinox. This time, however, the improvement will be more
pronounced as solar activity will gradually increase in the
meantime."

The Vernal Equinox occurs at 0306 UTC, March 20 and marks the
beginning of Spring in the Northern Hemisphere and the Autumnal
Equinox in the Southern Hemisphere.

Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research is looking for
volunteers:

https://bit.ly/4a43yZk[2]

From DailyMotion, an August 2022 solar video:

https://bit.ly/3v0RARw[3]

Space.com article about the April 8 solar eclipse:

https://bit.ly/3PdXnKl[4]

Eclipse missions:

https://stardate.org/podcast/2024-03-07[5]

An article about solar dynamo behavior during a Grand Solar Minima:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-55317-w[6]

From LiveScience, is the peak of Solar Cycle 25 already here?

https://bit.ly/3Taxe0p[7]

A quiet Sun:

https://bit.ly/3T98PIh[8]

Thanks to W7WKR for this article about Maritime Radio Historical
Society Station KPH:

https://bit.ly/49Fpjiz[9]

[Station K6KPH also transmits W1AW Qualifying Run transmissions: https://www.radiomarine.org/mrhs-stations/blog-post-title-four-r3jyw[10]
-Ed.]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[11]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[12] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[13] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[14] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[15] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[16] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[17]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[18] .

Sunspot numbers for February 29 through March 6 2024 were 107, 120,
91, 90, 113, 121, and 105, with a mean of 106.7. 10.7 cm flux was
164.1, 152.8, 152.3, 145.5, 139.9, 141.5, and 136, with a mean of
147.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 9, 5, 29, 10, 7, and 6,
with a mean of 10. Middle latitude A index was 4, 9, 3, 20, 8, 7,
and 5, with a mean of 8.
NNNN
/EX

ÿ


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://bit.ly/4a43yZk
[3] https://bit.ly/3v0RARw
[4] https://bit.ly/3PdXnKl
[5] https://stardate.org/podcast/2024-03-07
[6] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-55317-w
[7] https://bit.ly/3Taxe0p
[8] https://bit.ly/3T98PIh
[9] https://bit.ly/49Fpjiz
[10] https://www.radiomarine.org/mrhs-stations/blog-post-title-four-r3jyw
[11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[12] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[13] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[14] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[16] http://k9la.us/
[17] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[18] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

03/15/2024

Six new sunspot groups appeared over the past reporting week, March
7-13, and one more on March 14.

The first group emerged on March 7, two more appeared on March 12,
and three more on March 13.

Solar activity was down. Average daily sunspot number went from
106.7 to 82.3, and solar flux from 147.4 to 130.4. Geomagnetic
indicators were somewhat quieter, with average daily planetary A
index dropping from 10 to 8.9, and middle latitude A index from 8 to
7.

The Vernal Equinox in the Northern Hemisphere is on Wednesday, March
20 at 0306 UTC. This marks a transition to Spring HF conditions,
always a positive effect.

I am not certain where we are in Solar Cycle 25, perhaps near the
peak, or the max could be next year.

Solar activity seems to be in the doldrums recently, and of course
we will only know when the peak has occurred six to twelve months
after it happens. This is because the official smoothed sunspot
number is a one year average. This erases lots of noise in the
graphic representation due to daily variations in sunspot numbers.

The outlook for the next few weeks shows continued low numbers, with
predicted solar flux at 135 on March 15-17, then 140, 145, 150 and
155 on March 18-21, 135 on March 22-23, then 132, 130, 132 and 138
on March 24-27, 140 on March 28-29, then 142, 140, 135, 130 and 128
on March 30 through April 3, and 125 on April 4-8, then 122, 118,
122, 125, 122, 127 and 130 on April 9-15, then 135 on April 16-19.

Predicted planetary A index is 12, 8 and 8 March 15-17, 5 on March
18-27, then 10 and 8 on March 28-29, 5 on March 30 through April 2,
and 12 on April 3-5, then 5, 10, 8 and 8 on April 6-9, then 5 on
April 10-23.

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - March 14, 2024:
ÿ
"In the last seven days, there were repeated situations where we
expected a CME to hit the Earth's magnetic field (while a weak G1
class geomagnetic storm was predicted by NOAA), but there have been
at most only isolated upswings, with the planetary K index at 4. The
active region AR3599 returned to the solar disk, but it was much
smaller and less active than during the last solar rotation. It
produced at least a strong M7.4 class solar flare on March 10 at
1213 UTC.

"Shortly after AR3599 sets behind the southwestern limb of the solar
disk, the former AR3590 rises in the northeast. According to
helioseismological observations, it remains the largest of all on
the Sun's far side. Its activity will have a decisive influence on
the evolution of shortwave propagation around the approaching
equinox.

"Thirty-five years ago, at the peak of Solar Cycle 22, a powerful
CME hit our planet. It happened on March 13, 1989, and within 90
seconds, the entire Hydro-Quebec power grid was knocked out. The
outage lasted nine hours, millions of Quebecois were without light
and heat, and nine months later, the affected area experienced a
significant increase in birth rates. The treachery consists in
inducing direct currents into the lines, to which the transformers
in the alternating current grid offer little resistance.

"On March 13, 1989, the biggest storm of the space age occurred. But
the bigger one was the 'Carrington Event' of September 1859. It
produced a storm twice as powerful as the one mentioned in March
1989. It later turned out that the cause was not one, but two CMEs,
and came from the X4.5 eruptions of March 10 and M7.3 of March 12.

"F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH."

NASA-funded team of scientists discovered long-lasting radio
signals:

https://bit.ly/48VrH3F[1]

Sunspot cluster responsible for monster flare spotted on far side of
the Sun:

https://bit.ly/3IDA5Kc[2]

Recent videos from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/2nWLAYL01FA[3]

https://youtu.be/v4wf-EjTN4k[4]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[11]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

Sunspot numbers for March 7 through 13 2024 were 99, 91, 99, 77, 56,
68, and 86, with a mean of 82.3. 10.7 cm flux was 136.6, 129, 134.5,
127, 126.7, 130.5, and 128.3, with a mean of 130.4. Estimated
planetary A indices were 12, 11, 13, 7, 4, 6, and 9, with a mean of
8.9. Middle latitude A index was 8, 9, 11, 6, 4, 4, and 7, with a
mean of 7.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/48VrH3F
[2] https://bit.ly/3IDA5Kc
[3] https://youtu.be/2nWLAYL01FA
[4] https://youtu.be/v4wf-EjTN4k
[5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

03/22/2024

Over March 14-20, new sunspot groups emerged every day except March
19. March 18 had two, and each of the other days saw one new sunspot
group.

It is now Spring in the Northern Hemisphere which is favorable to HF conditions, and solar and geomagnetic numbers both show improvement.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 82.3 to 94.3, and average
daily solar flux jumped from 130.4 to 153.3.

Geomagnetic indicators were very quiet, with the average daily
planetary A index dropping from 8.9 to 5.9, and middle latitude
numbers from 7 to 5.

Here is the outlook for the next month.

Predicted solar flux is 180 and 178 on March 22-23, 174 on March
24-25, then 176 on March 26-27, 178 on March 28, 165 on March 29-30,
160 on March 31, 155 on April 1-3, then 158 on April 4, 160 on April
5-6, then 162, 155, 150, and 145 on April 7-10, 148 on April 11-12,
then 152, 155, 160, 162, 165 and 160 on April 13-18, then 155 on
April 19-20, 152 on April 21, 160 on April 22-23, then 162, 165, 165
and 160 on April 24-27, and 155 on April 28-30.

Predicted planetary A index is 12, 5, 16, 18 and 8 on March 22-26,
then 5, 5 and 8 on March 27-29, 5 on March 30 through April 2, then
15, 12 and 12 on April 3-5, 5 on April 6-8, 8 on April 9-11, then 5
on April 12-23, 10 on April 24-25, and 5 on April 26-29.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - March 21, 2024, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Solar activity on average continues to increase toward the Solar
Cycle 25 maximum. This included a shower of protons that came from
the admittedly smaller in X-ray intensity but primarily long-lived
flare on the morning hours UTC of March 15. The particle density
peaked a day later when the proton event reached S1. High polar cap
absorption of radio waves was recorded at the same time.

"The geomagnetic field remains mostly calm, with the occurrence of
short active intervals. An increase in geomagnetic activity was
expected after the eruption of 17 March. A partial CME halo was
observed and ejected particles were expected in the vicinity of the
Earth first on 20 March, then on the evening of 20 March, and then
on the morning of 21 March. The result was an increase in MUF
already in the forenoon UTC.ÿ An increase in the Earth's magnetic
field activity occurred in the afternoon.

"The new sunspot group AR3615, which emerged in the southeast of the
solar disk, although not yet large, has a complex magnetic
structure. This configuration increases the probability of magnetic reconnection during a solar flare. Especially if an X-class solar
flare occurs, the probability of CME will increase."

Angel Santana, WP3GW wrote about conditions on March 16 in an email:

"With much expectation worked the Russian DX contest on SSB, but
then noticed rough conditions, so bad that after 1600 UTC signals
were gone, not seen on my radio. After 1730 UTC saw them come back
but conditions were still bad.

"Next day did the BARTG RTTY contest after 1430 UTC and fared
better.

"Did it have to do with one of the six sunspots last week? Hope prop
is good in a week from now."

I replied that according to Spaceweather.com[1], departing sunspot
AR3599 blasted protons toward Earth on March 14, causing a polar cap
absorption event on March 16. The ionizing effect of the protons
absorbed radio signals inside the arctic circle.

Nasa Space Flight article about VLA detection of radiation above
sunspots:

https://bit.ly/4cDDref[2]

Article about Radio Blackout:

https://bit.ly/3ILT6KH[3]

From Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

"Dear Tad,

"Recently our Sun gave us a surprise when a solar storm we thought
would be a glancing blow, actually hit us pretty hard. That was back
on March 3rd and some gorgeous aurora shows were seen in Tasmania
and Australia (see my forecast from that week for some amazing
pictures: https://youtu.be/2nWLAYL01FA[4]).

"Here we are several weeks later with yet another glancing blow set
to hit us midday March 20th. The official forecast is calling for a
weak impact, but our recent experience has left me wondering: Are we
are going to make the same mistake twice?

"These are the kinds of dilemmas that make space weather such a
tough field today. Compared to terrestrial weather, there are so
many things we simply cannot foresee.

"Turning to the forecast, big flare activity is beginning again
thanks to old Region 3590 rotating back into view along with some
new players as well. Amateur radio bands are getting noisier and
radio blackouts are resuming on the daylight side of Earth. Of
course, the big story is the solar storm coming towards us. Will it
be relatively mild at mid-latitudes, as the predictions suggest?
This time, I'm not so sure. Either way, I will remain on the
lookout.

"Cheers, Tamitha."

Here is her latest video report:

https://youtu.be/O6vZDFaBfrc[5]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[12]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13] .

Sunspot numbers for March 14 through 20 2024 were 88, 49, 67, 86,
127, 123, and 120, with a mean of 94.3. 10.7 cm flux was 127.1, 129,
144.1, 151.3, 177.4, 168.9, and 175.5, with a mean of 153.3.
Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 8, 3, 3, 6, 9, and 4, with a
mean of 5.9. Middle latitude A index was 7, 8, 3, 2, 5, 7, and 3,
with a mean of 5.

ÿ


[1]
[2] https://bit.ly/4cDDref
[3] https://bit.ly/3ILT6KH
[4] https://youtu.be/2nWLAYL01FA
[5] https://youtu.be/O6vZDFaBfrc
[6] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[11] http://k9la.us/
[12] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

03/29/2024

ÿA dramatic increase in solar activity emerged over the past week, and geomagnetic activity reacted as well.

Two new sunspot groups appeared on March 21, then one new group emerged each day over March 22-25.

Average daily solar flux rose from 153.3 to 191.9, and average daily sunspot numbers increased from 94.3 to 147.

The highest sunspot number over last week was 171 on March 22, which was the highest sunspot number since November 22-25, 2023 when the numbers were 174, 176, 184, and 179.

Average daily planetary A index jumped from 5.9 to 25.4, and middle latitude numbers from 5 to 19.

On March 24 the college A index in Fairbanks, Alaska reached 100! The planetary A index was 64.ÿ Looking ahead, solar flux is predicted to reach a peak of 210 on April 23-24.

The projected solar flux is 175, 170 and 155 on March 29-31, 150 on April 1-2, 155 on April 3-4, 185 on April 5, then 180 and 185 on April 4-5, 190 on April 6-7, then 185, 180, 175 and 180 on April 8-11, 185 on April 12-13, then 190, 185, 190, 185 and 180 on April 14-18, then 175 on April 19-20, then 200 and 205 on April 21-22, 210 on April 23-24, then 205, 190 and 180 on April 25-27, 175 on April 28-29, then 170, 180 and 185 on April 30 through May 2, and 190 on May 3-4.

The planetary A index forecast shows 8 and 6 on March 29-30, 10 on March 31 through April 1, then 8, 5, 5 and 12 on April 2-5, 5 on April 6-8, 8 on April 9-11, 5 on April 12-18, then 8, 10, 10 and 8 on April 19-22, 5 on April 23-29, then 15, 12, and 12 on April 30 through May 2, and 5 on May 3-5.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for March 28, 2024 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH: ÿ

ÿThe period without stronger disturbances in the Earth's magnetic field was incredibly long: 19 December 2023 to 20 April 2024, or three whole months.ÿ But it had to end at some point.ÿ Especially since we're near the peak of the 11-year solar cycle.

ÿAround March 20, we were expecting the rise of a larger sunspot group in the northeastern solar disk, AR3614.ÿ The bigger surprise, however, was the simultaneous emergence of another group, designated AR3615, which surprised us both by its size and dispersion and by the number of moderate flares produced, which totaled eleven on March 23.

ÿAlthough AR3614 was the source of a much smaller number of flares, it made up for everything with a large proton flare, accompanied by a CME, on 23 March with a maximum at 0133 UT.ÿ The Earth was bombarded by energetic protons on the following days, while simultaneously being hit by particle clouds from flares in both active regions.ÿ Which couldn't have resulted in anything other than the development of a magnetic storm.ÿ Its intensity was greatest on April 24.

ÿThe disturbance began on April 23, however, with an increase in MUF, or so-called positive phase.ÿ A significant decrease in MUF and an increase in the attenuation of radio waves in the ionosphere occurred since 24 March.ÿ The significant deterioration of shortwave propagation conditions lasted until 26 March.

ÿA return to slightly above-average propagation is expected after March 28.

In a March 28 email titled "Big CME impact ignites 6 meters", Jon Jones, N0JK in Kansas wrote:

"The CME that struck March 24 ignited 6 meters for the Midwest USA through Wednesday March 26.

"On March 24 I logged 9Y4D on 6 Meter FT8 and had good copy on VP8WA up to +4 dB.ÿ Had a psk flag from CE8EIO at -5 dB.ÿ The planetary K index went to 8.

"March 25 copied HD8MD from my fixed mobile (1/4 wave whip) around 1930 UTC up to -7 dB on FT8.

"March 26 worked HC5VF, copied HD8MD, LU1WFU, HC2AP/P, HC1BI, LU8DRH, CX4DSAE and many others on FT8.ÿ Big pileups on the DX stations.

Jon N0JK EM28 KS"

Shortwave blackout:ÿ https://bit.ly/3IYnul6[1]

Check out the KN8DMK page on QRZ.COM.ÿ Using a VLF receiver on 40.75 KHz, he monitored US Navy transmitter NAU in Puerto Rico during a solar flare.

Tamitha Skov video:ÿ https://youtu.be/SSPbzvxbX2M[2]

This weekend is the CQ World Wide WPX SSB Contest.ÿ See https://cqwpx.com/[3] for info.ÿ The CW weekend is May 25-26.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[4] .ÿ When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see ÿ

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7] ÿ.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] .

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at

http://k9la.us/[9]

Also, check this: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[10]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

Sunspot numbers for March 21 through 27 2024 were 141, 171, 146, 145, 163, 149, and 114, with a mean of 147.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 196.9, 197.6, 210.7, 195.1, 190.1, 178.2, and 174.6, with a mean of 191.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 27, 11, 36, 64, 22, 11, and 7, with a mean of 25.4.ÿ Middle latitude A index was 20, 10, 25, 43, 17, 11, and 7, with a mean of 19.


[1] https://bit.ly/3IYnul6
[2] https://youtu.be/SSPbzvxbX2M
[3] https://cqwpx.com/
[4] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] http://k9la.us/
[10] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

04/05/2024

With the big increase in sunspot numbers and solar flux reported in
last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP013, I hoped the trend
would continue, but numbers this week were lower.

Five new sunspot groups emerged, one each day from March 30 through
April 3.

Average daily sunspot numbers went from 147 to 60, and average daily
solar flux declined from 191.9 to 136.9.

Geomagnetic numbers were much quieter. Average daily planetary A
index softened to 7.6 from 25.4.

Predicted solar flux is 115 on April 5-8, 120 on April 9-10, 125 on
April 11, 140 on April 12-13, 150 on April 14-16, 160 on April
17-18, 170 on April 19-24, then 160, 150 and 140 on April 25-27,
then 130 on April 28 through May 4 then 160, 150, and 140 on May
5-10, then 150 on May 11-13.

The predicted flux values this week are much lower than in last
week's forecast for the same period.

Predicted planetary A index is 16 and 10 on April 5-6, 5 on April
7-8, 8 on April 9-10, 5 on April 11-18, 8 and 10 on April 19-20, 8
on April 21-23, 5 on April 24-26, 10 on April 27-28, 8 on April 29,
and 12 on April 30 through May 2, then 8, 5 and 5 on May 3-5, 8 on
May 6-8, and 5 on May 9-15.

The Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - April 4, 2024 from OK1HH:

"The two large and very active sunspot groups, AR3614 and AR3615,
bade us farewell last week by going beyond the western limb of the
solar disk. AR3615 still unleashed two powerful M-class flares and
an X1 flare that ionized the upper part of the Earth's atmosphere
and caused the Dellinger effect (shortwave fade) over the Pacific
Ocean on March 28 (with a maximum at 2053 UTC).

"AR3615 still managed to produce an M9.4-class solar flare on March
30, which was only one percent weaker than an X-class flare. After
that, we expected particles originating from solar radiation to
arrive in the vicinity of Earth, but this did not happen. The
development in the following days was therefore relatively quiet.

"Due to the calming of the geomagnetic field, we expected an
improvement in shortwave propagation. This occurred from 2 April
onwards but was only very slight due to the rapid decrease in solar
activity. After the return of active regions to the solar disk, we
expect an improvement in propagation, especially in the third decade
of April."

(I think he refers to a decade as a ten day period, so this would be
the last ten days of April).

Angel Santana, WP3GW, sent an email about last week's contest:

"WPX for me was pretty good even though I did not reach my goal.
There were openings toward Europe during Saturday midnight on 20
meters.

"Now on Sunday at midday, I noticed a reduction of stations on 10
meters, just like 2 weeks ago, but there were many strong stations
from South America and an hour later back to normal. My friend Jose,
KP4JRS (who operated as NP3YL) noticed this over the two days on 10
meters.

"Also noticed when a big contest is on the air, the bands tend to be
almost 'noiseless.'

"Not sure if because the SFI has gone down but today Thursday at
1500 UTC there is much noise on the bands. Hope the weekend fares
better."

WX2R reminds us that coming up on Monday, April 8 is the HamSCI
Solar Eclipse QSO Party:

"Join with thousands of your fellow amateurs as part of the largest crowd-sourced event for ham radio scientific exploration ever! The
SEQP is part of 'The Festivals of Eclipse Ionospheric Science' and
is for learning more about how the ionosphere works. Use any mode,
any band for all or part of the day!

"Participation can be from everywhere - you need not be near the
path of the eclipse to contribute valuable data by participating.

"Are you a contester? For details on the SEQP contest and rules go
to www.hamsci.org/contest-info[1]. Don't forget to send in your log.

"For the Gladstone Signal Spotting Challenge using CW, WSPR and
FST4W modes, go to www.hamsci.org/contest-info[2].

"If you're an SWL or AM DX'er, there is the 'Medium Wave Recording
Event' for you as well. Go to www.hamsci.org/mw-recordings/[3].

"Or just get on the air and help provide the data to better
understand the ionosphere.ÿ Monday, 8 April 2024. Get on the air!
1400-2400 UTC.

"Do it for science! Any band/any mode except 60, 30, 17, and 12
meters."

From Forbes Magazine, an eclipse guide:

https://bit.ly/3J4zzoX[4]

A DailyMotion video of a long duration flare, but no date given:

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8w8viq[5]

Chip, N2YO, sent this email last week.

"Thanks for your excellent ARRL propagation bulletins!

"I also am running a weekly propagation bulletin for more than 20
years (in Romanian language). The bulletin is available on the web,
distributed online by email, and read during the 'Info DX' QTC on
80m each Thursday in Romania.

"All bulletins are available here:

https://www.radioamator.ro/misc/buletinepropagare.php[6]

"On the first of each month I update a page of propagation charts in
certain directions, centered on YO:

https://www.radioamator.ro/misc/grafice_propagare.php[7]

"I also run a YO DX Cluster which is powered by a DX Spider server
hosted by a Raspberry Pi in my basement that feeds a web page:

"https://www.radioamator.ro/yocluster/[8]

"In fact, I run the whole radioamator.ro website, which is the most
popular YO ham radio resource on internet. This year the website
will have the 20th anniversary."

Recent video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/yKNB1YRX7kg[9]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[10]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell
us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[11] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[12] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[13] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[14] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[15] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[16]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[17] .

Sunspot numbers for March 28 through April 3 2024 were 101, 79, 60,
50, 50, 35, and 45, with a mean of 60. 10.7 cm flux was 172.7,
167.3, 139.6, 133.6, 120.4, 112.8, and 111.7, with a mean of 136.9.
Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 6, 5, 9, 11, 8, and 7, with a
mean of 7.6. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 4, 8, 9, 7, and 10,
with a mean of 6.9.

ÿ


[1] http://www.hamsci.org/contest-info
[2] http://www.hamsci.org/contest-info
[3] http://www.hamsci.org/mw-recordings/
[4] https://bit.ly/3J4zzoX
[5] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8w8viq
[6] https://www.radioamator.ro/misc/buletinepropagare.php
[7] https://www.radioamator.ro/misc/grafice_propagare.php
[8] https://www.radioamator.ro/yocluster/
[9] https://youtu.be/yKNB1YRX7kg
[10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[11] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[13] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[14] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[15] http://k9la.us/
[16] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[17] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

04/12/2024

I did not see last Monday's eclipse, except on television. Here in
the Pacific Northwest, we only got a 20% exposure, and skies were
overcast.

As they moved across the country displaying successive totality, I
noticed the prominences on the edge of the disk. There were always
between one and three little red spots at the edge.

Solar activity over the past reporting week, April 4-10, remains
weak.

Average daily sunspot number rose from 60 to 67.9, but average solar
flux declined from 136.9 to 123.2.

Seven new sunspot groups emerged this week, one on April 4, three on
April 5, another on April 6, one more on April 8, and another on
April 10.

Here is the outlook for the next few weeks, which does not seem
promising. Solar flux peaks at 160 over April 17-18.

Predicted solar flux is 148, 150 and 155 on April 12-14, 158 on
April 15-16, 160 on April 17-18, 140 on April 19-20, 135 on April
21-22, 140 and 145 on April 23-24, 140 on April 25-26, then 135, 125
and 120 on April 27-29, and 125 on April 30 through May 10, then 130
on May 11-12, 135 on May 13-14, and 130 on May 15-18.

Predicted planetary A index is quiet over the next month, starting
with 5, 8, 15, 10 and 8 on April 12-16, 5 on April 17-18, 8 and 10
on April 19-20, 8 on April 21-23, 5 on April 24-27, then 8, 8 and 7
on April 28-30, 10 on May 1-3, 5 on May 4-5, 8 on May 6-8, and 5 on
May 9-15, then 8 and 10 on May 16-17, and 8 on May 18-20.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - April 11, 2024, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"At the end of March, it was still possible to see large sunspot
groups, during the last solar rotation marked as AR3614 and
especially the giant AR3615. We will see them again on the eastern
limb of the solar disk this weekend. This will end a roughly
two-week period of relatively quiet solar activity without major
solar flares.

"The Sun's total X-ray output, which has dropped by almost an order
of magnitude, will increase significantly, which will have a
beneficial effect on shortwave propagation.

"Daily MUF values will gradually increase, while active regions will
be on the eastern half of the solar disk. For that reason, here will
be little probability of major geomagnetic disturbances. Of course,
now that the peak of the 11-year cycle is approaching, events such
as the eruption of solar plasma filaments that could affect the
Earth cannot be ruled out."

Dennis Wage, N9OQ of Plover, Wisconsin did a casual experiment
during the recent eclipse:

"We did an experiment on 160m.

"During the eclipse we found that the band opened slightly and we had
very good copy on CW between some stations.ÿ The band then closed as
the eclipse ended."

Douglas Barbier, N8ZVT, wrote in an email:

"Why is the solar flux so low, given the number of sunspots?ÿ What
else may be affecting the solar flux?

"This is my first solar maximum as a ham - and at my age, might be
the last. I had always heard stories of how 10m would be open 24
hours a day for voice and working all over the world with low power
SSB.ÿ Sure haven't seen that yet at all."

I replied:

"That was nearly 70 years ago at the peak of Solar Cycle 19 when 10
meters was open 24/7.

"There has never been a similar solar cycle since the dawn of radio.
It was all AM back then, no SSB.

"Solar flux readings come from an observatory in Penticton, BC:

"https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5 -flux-en.php[1]

"I have not noticed that solar flux was low.

"Because Earth is in an elliptical orbit around the Sun, a variation
in distance affects solar flux.

"That is why you will see adjusted values in the flux readings from
Penticton.

"You can get a graphic view of sunspot numbers and solar flux from
the WA4TTK solar data plotting utility at:

"http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp[2]

"You can update the data automatically using data from this weekly
bulletin."

Solar cycles explained:

https://www.snexplores.org/article/explainer-solar-cycle[3]

A solar cycle clock:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-58960-5[4]

Flares during eclipse:

https://bit.ly/3VRBxk0[5]

Prominences, not flares:

https://bit.ly/49waWMC[6]

Solar Cycles:

https://bit.ly/3PY4F5p[7]

Internet apocalypse due to solar storms:

https://bit.ly/3vBW69C[8]

Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, reports during the eclipse:

https://youtu.be/Z16_Uk1vym8[9]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[10]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[11] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[12] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[13] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[14] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[15] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[16]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[17] .

Sunspot numbers for April 4 through 10 2024 were 47, 81, 71, 79, 79,
64, and 54, with a mean of 67.9. 10.7 cm flux was 113.7, 120.5,
122.9, 124.6, 124.8, 124.4, and 131.2, with a mean of 123.2.
Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 12, 10, 6, 8, 11, and 8, with
a mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A index was 33, 10, 8, 5, 8, 10, and
7, with a mean of 11.6.

ÿ


[1] https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php
[2] http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp
[3] https://www.snexplores.org/article/explainer-solar-cycle
[4] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-58960-5
[5] https://bit.ly/3VRBxk0
[6] https://bit.ly/49waWMC
[7] https://bit.ly/3PY4F5p
[8] https://bit.ly/3vBW69C
[9] https://youtu.be/Z16_Uk1vym8
[10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[11] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[13] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[14] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[15] http://k9la.us/
[16] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[17] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

04/19/2024

Solar activity increased dramatically this reporting week (April
11-17), and thirteen new sunspot groups emerged. One appeared on
April 11, two more on April 13, three more on April 14, another two
on April 15, one more on April 16 and another two on April 17. On
April 18 an additional two sunspot groups emerged, and the daily
sunspot number increased to 247.

The daily sunspot number was 199 on April 17, the highest value
since July 12, 2023 when it was 219. On April 18, when the sunspot
number was 247, it was the highest sunspot number since July 6, 2014
when it was 256. That was back in Solar Cycle 24, so 247 is a new
record for Solar Cycle 25.

Average daily sunspot numbers jumped from 67.9 to 142.7, and average
daily solar flux from 123.2 to 177.4.

Predicted solar flux over the near term is 225 on April 19, 220 on
April 20-21, 215 and 205 on April 22-23, 190 on April 24-25, then
140, 130, 125 and 120 on April 26-29, then 125 on April 30 to May 6,
and 130, 140, 150, 160 and 175 on May 7-11, then 180 on May 12-14,
175 on May 15, 170 on May 16-17, then 167 and 165 on May 18-19, 160
on May 20-21, then 155, 140, 135, 125 and 120 on May 22-26.

Predicted planetary A index is 6, 10, 12 and 8 on April 19-22, 5 on
April 23-27, 8 on April 28-29, 7 on April 30, 10 on May 1-3, 5 on
May 4, 8 on May 5-7, 5 on May 8-11, 10 and 8 on May 12-13, then 5 on
May 14-24, and 8 on May 25-26.

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - April 18, 2024:

"Over the past weekend, active sunspot regions began to emerge on
the eastern limb as expected. Curiosity about what we would actually
see was heightened because their flare activity during the last
rotation was somewhat higher than usual. Therefore, the CME from a
moderate eruption in the northern hemisphere of the Sun on April 11
with a maximum at 1706 UTC was not a surprise. The arrival of the
particle cloud on April 14 was therefore expected, but it missed the
Earth.

"Another CME was ejected towards Earth on 12 April. Although neither
CME was particularly strong, a G1 class geomagnetic storm was
expected. This occurred on 16 April, so either the particle cloud
moved more slowly or traveled along a longer path toward the Earth.
Either way, the disturbance worsened shortwave propagation on April
16. But the improvement was rapid, starting as early as April 17.
The credit for this goes to the increasing solar radiation coming
from the active regions we can observe on the Sun this week and
next.

"Another weak CME left the Sun on April 15, and the Earth's impact
was calculated for April 18. However, all predictions of
disturbances at the current stage of the 11-year cycle are
unreliable. They are usually either late (by a day or so) or not at
all. The important thing is the result - due to the relatively high
solar activity and at the same time the small number of geomagnetic disturbances, the shortwave propagation conditions are mostly above
average.ÿ F.K. Janda, OK1HH."

Check out these videos and an article on flare activity from
EarthSky:

https://bit.ly/3W4GTID[1]

On April 16, Samuel, K5KJ called ARRL headquarters about unusual
propagation he experienced.

He said flare activity caused a radio blackout, and on 40 meters he
could not hear any local or regional signals.

But he noticed foreign broadcast stations from Asia with good
signals.

He said this is just the opposite of what he expected during a
blackout.

Durango Herald article about sunspots and prominences:

https://bit.ly/3Q3VDnh[2]

NASA on Space Weather:

https://go.nasa.gov/49YFhDX[3]

From Science.Nasa.gov, Solar Moss:

https://go.nasa.gov/4b3n4Wn[4]

See sunspots with eclipse glasses:

https://bit.ly/4cXc5Qp[5]

I tried this, but had no luck, as the images were too tiny.

The latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, for April 14:

https://youtu.be/Z1OClNvDg2o[6]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ [12].

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[13]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14] .

Sunspot numbers for April 11 through 17 2024 were 81, 83, 115, 152,
193, 176, and 199, with a mean of 142.7. 10.7 cm flux was 143.7,
151.5, 161, 178.4, 191.9, 198.7, and 216.5, with a mean of 177.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 7, 5, 6, 8, 31, and 7, with a
mean of 10. Middle latitude A index was 6, 6, 6, 5, 7, 17, and 8,
with a mean of 7.9.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3W4GTID
[2] https://bit.ly/3Q3VDnh
[3] https://go.nasa.gov/49YFhDX
[4] https://go.nasa.gov/4b3n4Wn
[5] https://bit.ly/4cXc5Qp
[6] https://youtu.be/Z1OClNvDg2o
[7] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[12] http://k9la.us/
[13] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

04/26/2024

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0733 UTC/26 APRIL2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"A coronal hole wind stream has moderately enhanced the solar wind
speed and been associated with several hours' worth of southward IMF
parameter Bz. For this reason, it is possible that periods of G1-G2
geomagnetic storm conditions may be observed.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM FROM 26-27 APRIL 2024:

"GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
26 Apr:ÿ G0, slight chance G1-G2
27 Apr:ÿ G0, slight chance G1
ÿ
"Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre."

After a big jump in solar activity, conditions continued to improve
in the past week.

Twelve new sunspot groups emerged, two on April 18, three more on
April 19, five more on April 21, another on April 22 and one more on
April 24.

Average daily sunspot number jumped from 142.7 to 265.9, and average
daily solar flux from 177.4 to 216.

The Sun set another sunspot number record this week when the numbers
were 283, 283, 282 and 283 on April 21-24. The last time we saw a
higher daily sunspot number was 296 on April 17, 2014, 3,661 days
ago.

April 2014 was the peak of Solar Cycle 24.

Predicted solar flux over the next month shows values peaking at 215
from May 15-16 and again on May 19-20.

We see solar flux at 155, 145 and 135 on April 26-28, 130 on April
29 through May 2, 160 on May 3-6, then 165, 170, 180, 185, 190, 195,
200, and 210 on May 7-14, then 215 on May 15-16, 212 on May 17-18,
215 on May 19-20, then 200 and 190 on May 21-22, 170 on May 23-24,
165, 160 and 155 on May 25-27, then 160 on May 28 through June 2.

Predicted planetary A index is 15 on April 26-27, then 12, 10, 8 and
5 on April 28 through May 1, 10 on May 2-3, 5 on May 4, 8 on May
5-7, 5 on May 8-18, then 10, 15, 10 and 12 on May 19-22, 15 on May
23-24, 12, 8 and 7 on May 25-27, and 10 on May 28-30, 5 on May 31,
and 8 on June 1-3.

There is no report from OK1HH this week due to problems with the
Czech Republic electric power grid.

Steve, NN4X wrote on April 26:

"The SFI and SSN have been very high lately, as you are more than
well aware.ÿ Sadly, no F2 has been noted on 6m, but on the evening
of Wednesday, 4/24/2024 at around 10:00 pm ET.
ÿ
"10m: Noted BY still being received here in EL98 FT8. Also, received
multiple decodes from CS7AUT in IM67!

"Not bad for 10:00pm!"

In another message, on the evening of April 25 he sent a long list
of 10 and 12 meter FT8 decodes at 11:42 PM EDT.

Signals from all over North America, plus Brazil, New Zealand,
Australia, Russia and China.

New report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/MIB_OnxhpLk[1]

From Weather.com, a cluster of sunspots:

https://bit.ly/3UAF9Wo[2]

An article from The Sun about four flares:

https://bit.ly/3WftxJG[3]

A Super Explosion about four flares:

https://bit.ly/3waYEeY[4]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[11]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

Sunspot numbers for April 18 through 24 2024 were 247, 243, 240,
283, 283, 282, and 283 with a mean of 265.9. 10.7 cm flux was 226.9,
213.4, 209.5, 217.1, 226.8, 219.1, and 199.1, with a mean of 216.
Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 41, 12, 19, 9, 8, and 4, with
a mean of 13.9. Middle latitude A index was 5, 21, 10, 14, 10, 9,
and 4, with a mean of 10.4.
NNNN
/EX

ÿ


[1] https://youtu.be/MIB_OnxhpLk
[2] https://bit.ly/3UAF9Wo
[3] https://bit.ly/3WftxJG
[4] https://bit.ly/3waYEeY
[5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

05/03/2024

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED 1817 UTC/02 MAY 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"A period of planetary G3 geomagnetic conditions has been observed
on 02-May, associated with two recent CME arrivals and a sustained
period of southward IMF conditions. Further periods of G3 are
possible over 02-03 May.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 02-03 MAY 2024.

"GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST:
02 May: G2-G3
03 May: G2, chance G3, declining to G1"

After the record sunspot numbers reported in last week's Propagation
Forecast Bulletin ARLP017, the April 25 through May 1 reporting week
has more modest numbers. In fact, the average daily sunspot number
(124.6) is less than half the value (265.9) in the previous
bulletin.

Seven new sunspot groups appeared this week.

One new sunspot group emerged on April 25, another on April 27, two
more on April 29 and one each on April 30 and May 1.

Average daily solar flux shifted from 216 to 144.9.

Average daily planetary A index dropped from 13.9 to 9.6.

The solar flux estimate for the next month has values peaking at 205
on May 15-16 and again on June 11-12.

The values are 135 on May 3, 132 on May 4-5, then 134 and 136 on May
6-7, 138 on May 8-9, then 140, 155, 160, 175 and 180 on May 10-14,
205 on May 15-16, then 200, 195, 190, 185, 180, and 165 on May
17-22, 145 on May 23-24, then 140, 135, 130, and 125 on May 25-28,
then 120, 115 and 120 May 29-31, 125 on June 1-2, 130, 145, and 150
June 3-5, 155 on June 6-7, then 160, 175 and 180 on June 8-10, and
205 on June 11-12.

Predicted planetary A index is 18, 20, 18 and 10 on May 3-6, 5 on
May 7-22, 15 on May 23, 12 on May 24-25, then 10, 8, 15, 18 and 10
on May 26-30, then 8 on May 31 through June 3, and 5 on June 4
through the middle of the month.
ÿ
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - May 2, 2024 from OK1HH.

"The number of sunspot groups at the present stage of the 11-year
cycle varies between five and twelve. Of these, one to three can be
described as active regions, whereby their size and magnetic
configuration suggest the possibility of energetic flares of
intermediate magnitude. A number of these are accompanied by CMEs,
which, given their position on the Sun, are expected to strike the
Earth. Therefore, predictions of increased geomagnetic activity are
quite often made, but most of them do not come true. Conversely, if
the Earth is affected, a geomagnetic disturbance so strong that it
affects the conditions for shortwave propagation will develop.

"CME collisions with the Earth have mainly caused magnetic storms
and subsequent deterioration of shortwave propagation on 21-22 April
and 27-28 April. Especially in the latter case, the recovery from
the disturbance was very slow, even multi-day, due in part to the
decrease in solar radiation. Added to this was another geomagnetic
disturbance in the late evening hours UTC on 30 April, which caused
a decrease in MUF and a worsening on 1 May."

NOAA article about Solar Cycle 25 progress:

https://bit.ly/3WshU2e[1]

In an email Thursday morning, Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, wrote:

"Region 3654 sure has been a point of contention this week. Despite
a lot of big flares, the eruptions that have occurred have been
rather unspectacular-- or so we all thought. Twice now, we have had
stealthy solar storms hit Earth. The first one that hit yesterday,
was not particularly impactful. In fact, for those who have been
following the news in our community chat here on Patreon, you have
seen me discuss the event there, instead of posting an official
'Snapshot.' I did this because that storm was weak and slow, without
much southward-pointing field. In other words, it was so
yawn-worthy, I haven't bothered to update my twitter feed with the
news.

"That all changed when yet another stealthy solar storm hit, just a
few hours ago. This one is much stronger. The top solar disk image
shows the source region for this event. It was an unimpressive event
in coronagraphs, with no clear Earthward directed signature.
However, it has a strong magnetic field, that is pointing southward,
and is fast. This one has given us G3-levels momentarily, but could
keep us at sustained G2-level conditions.

"Both of these events have eluded detection by several (if not all
of the big space weather forecasting agencies) so it is clear,
stealthy solar storms continue to be a problem through solar
maximum. I had been working on a formal forecast, but I am thinking
I will do an impromptu live forecast today since things are
unfolding faster than I can update my current work. Stay tuned. I
will likely go live this afternoon (PDT time), a few hours from now.
Till then, know that we could very easily hit G2-levels within the
next hour at SWPC, if conditions remain as they are."

From Universe Magazine, another Radio Blackout:

https://bit.ly/4bkCHsL[2]

There was another blackout on Thursday, when two CMEs caused a G3
geomagnetic storm. According to Spaceweather.com, another CME is
expected on May 4.

From NDTV, an earlier disturbance:

https://bit.ly/3UpNF9J[3]

From reader David Moore, an article on a fluffy corona:

https://bit.ly/3w9B3eP[4]

From The Daily Galaxy, Solar fury:

https://bit.ly/3UFE6Vg[5]

Cosmic rarity, But did they really need to reference astrology?

https://bit.ly/3wiEaAX[6]

From Space.com, more on Radio Blackouts:

https://bit.ly/3UIWyfW[7]

Another from Space.com about the Solar max:

https://bit.ly/3wjtr9o[8]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[9]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[15]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16] .

Sunspot numbers for April 25 through May 1 2024 were 196, 154, 126,
119, 88, 85, and 104 with a mean of 124.6. 10.7 cm flux was 166.7,
152.6, 152.6, 140.1, 137.6, 130.2, and 134.8, with a mean of 144.9.
Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 19, 12, 7, 6, 12, and 8, with
a mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A index was 3, 11, 12, 7, 7, 10, and
10, with a mean of 8.6.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3WshU2e
[2] https://bit.ly/4bkCHsL
[3] https://bit.ly/3UpNF9J
[4] https://bit.ly/3w9B3eP
[5] https://bit.ly/3UFE6Vg
[6] https://bit.ly/3wiEaAX
[7] https://bit.ly/3UIWyfW
[8] https://bit.ly/3wjtr9o
[9] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

05/10/2024

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2302 UTC/09 MAY 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"Four halo CMEs first observed over 08-09 May are expected to arrive
at Earth on 10-May, starting at 1000 UTC +/- 10 hours. G4
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 10-May, reducing to G3 with a
chance of G4 on 11-May.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 10-12 MAY 2024.

"GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST:

"10 May: G4
11 May: G3, chance of G4
12 May: G1"

Six new sunspot groups appeared this reporting week, May 2-8, one
each day on May 2-4, two on May 5 and another on May 6. On May 9 two
more sunspot groups emerged, and the daily sunspot number rose to
170.

Average daily sunspot number increased from 124.6 to 138.3, and
average daily solar flux rose from 144.9 to 177.6.

Average daily planetary A index climbed from 9.6 to 14.4, while
middle latitude numbers went from 8.6 to 12.3.

The most active day was May 2, when the planetary A index was 44.
Alaska's College A index was 61. The cause was two CMEs striking
Earth, causing a G3 class geomagnetic storm.

The solar flux is peaking now and may peak again around June 11-12
at 205.

Predicted solar flux is 240 and 225 on May 10-11, 220 on May 12-13,
then 215 on May 14, then 210 on May 15-16, and 200, 195, 190, 185,
180, 175, 170, 165 and 170 on May 17-25, then 175 on May 26-27, 170
on May 28, then 165 on May 29-31, then 175, 180, 185, 190 and 185 on
June 1-5, 175 on June 6-9, 180 on June 10, 205 on June 11-12, then
200, 195, 190 and 185 on June 13-16.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 8, 12 and 10 on May 10-14, 5 on
May 15-22, then 8, 12, 8, 5, 12 and 8 on May 23-28, then 5, 5 and 8
on May 29-31, and 12 on June 1-3, then 8, 10, 5 and 5 on June 4-7,
then 8, 15 and 10 on June 8-10, and 5 on June 11-18.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - May 9, 2024 from OK1HH.

"This week, the number of sunspot groups was smaller than in
previous weeks (decreased from nine on Monday to six on Wednesday),
but two of them (AR3663 and AR3664) are really big. Moreover, both
have a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration, indicating the
possibility of producing strong solar flares. Moderate flares
(M-class) were observed several times a day and large flares
(X-class) were not an exception.

"Although AR3663 is now approaching the northwestern limb of the
solar disk, the overall solar activity is certainly not decreasing,
quite the contrary: AR3664 continued to grow rapidly, and has merged
with neighboring AR3668 to rival the large Carrington spot of 1859
in size. If it were to produce a CME eruption similar to 1859, and
if the CME were to hit the Earth, the so-called 'Carrington Event'
could be repeated, with potentially devastating consequences for
power and communications grids.

"So far, on the lower shortwave bands, we have seen rapid and large
increases in attenuation during large flares, up to and including
disruption of communications for tens of minutes to hours. The
phenomenon is abbreviated SWF (Shortwave Fading), belongs to the SID
(Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance) group. SWF is named after two
physicists, John Howard Dellinger and Hans Mogel, as the Dellinger
effect, or sometimes Mogel-Dellinger effect.

"Solar flares with CMEs in the western half of the solar disk appear
to be followed by an increase in geomagnetic activity and a marked
fluctuation in shortwave propagation conditions around the weekend,
with a slow return to average conditions in the following days."

Recent reports from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGdPOsRgBIE[1]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDEWbYqyNAo[2]

Today's large sunspot comparable to Carrington Event:

https://bit.ly/3Uxd94R[3]

Not like Carrington event:

https://bit.ly/4dA8eJ3[4]

Northern lights:

https://wapo.st/3UyKgp8[5]

https://bit.ly/3JX27kK[6]

https://bit.ly/3JUrbZr[7]

Really big sunspots:

https://bit.ly/44E2gTI[8]

Flare attacks Earth:

https://voi.id/en/technology/379507[9]

May 11 warning on X-Class Solar Flares:

https://bit.ly/4bv45o5[10]

Celestial onslaught of three Solar Flares:

https://bit.ly/4dAPDNk[11]

Solar storm train:

https://bit.ly/3wjypDl[12]

Aurora in Oregon and Washington.

https://bit.ly/4dvKDJE[13]

More on Solar Storms:

https://bit.ly/3JQv3e6[14]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[15]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[16] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[17] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[18] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[19] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[20] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[21]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[22] .

Sunspot numbers for May 2 through 8 2024 were 125, 121, 136, 152,
148, 144, and 142 with a mean of 138.3. 10.7 cm flux was 141.9, 156,
166.6, 176.9, 171.2, 203.6, and 227.1, with a mean of 177.6.
Estimated planetary A indices were 44, 10, 6, 12, 15, 7, and 7, with
a mean of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 24, 16, 5, 12, 13, 6,
and 10, with a mean of 12.3.

ÿ


[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGdPOsRgBIE
[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDEWbYqyNAo
[3] https://bit.ly/3Uxd94R
[4] https://bit.ly/4dA8eJ3
[5] https://wapo.st/3UyKgp8
[6] https://bit.ly/3JX27kK
[7] https://bit.ly/3JUrbZr
[8] https://bit.ly/44E2gTI
[9] https://voi.id/en/technology/379507
[10] https://bit.ly/4bv45o5
[11] https://bit.ly/4dAPDNk
[12] https://bit.ly/3wjypDl
[13] https://bit.ly/4dvKDJE
[14] https://bit.ly/3JQv3e6
[15] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[16] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[17] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[18] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[19] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[20] http://k9la.us/
[21] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[22] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

05/31/2024

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP020
ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA ÿ

ZCZC AP20
QST de W1AWÿÿ
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 20ÿ ARLP020
From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WAÿ May 31, 2024
To all radio amateursÿ ÿ

SB PROP ARL ARLP020
ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA ÿ
Solar activity was quiet this week. Average daily sunspot number slipped from 155.1 to 124.6, and average solar flux from 198.9 to 164.8. ÿ

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet, with average planetary A index going from 13.9 to 7.9, and middle latitude A index from 11.7 to 9.

Eight new sunspot groups emerged, one on May 23, two on May 25, four on May 26, and one on May 28.

The outlook for the next month predicts solar flux at 175 on May 31 through June 6, then 210, 200, 195, 190, 185 and 180 on June 7-12, 170 on June 13-14, 165 on June 15, 190 on June 16-17, 185 on June 18, then 190 on June 19-20, then 185, 195 and 200 on June 21-23, then 210, 210 and 215 on June 24-26, 225 on June 27-29, 220 on June 30 through July 1, 210 on July 2-4, then 200, 195 and 190 on July 5-7.

Predicted planetary A index is 25 on May 31 and June 1, 5 on June 2-7, then 10, 12, 8, 12 and 10 on June 8-12, 5 on June 13-19 then 15 and 12 on June 20-21, then 5, 12, 8 and 5 on June 22-25, and 5, 10, 12, 12 and 8 on June 26-30, then 5 on July 1-4, then 10, 12, 8, 12 and 10 on July 5-9.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere from OK1HH.

"Over the past seven days, two active regions have returned to the solar disk where large solar flares with CMEs were observed during the last solar revolution. These were regions AR3663 and AR3664, now designated AR3691 and AR3697. The activity of the latter caused a major geomagnetic storm with auroras on 10 May, the largest in decades. Until these large groups of spots reach the center of the solar disk or near the central meridian (i.e., approximately June 6-7), solar activity will increase in a roughly 20-day fluctuation and then decrease again.

"Even the last major solar flare on May 29 afternoon UTC was observed in AR3697 and was accompanied by a CME. Part of the particle cloud will probably hit Earth sometime between late afternoon on June 1 and the morning of June 2. The onset of the phenomenon should be accompanied by an improvement in shortwave propagation conditions and a deterioration can be expected during its continuation on June 2.

"In the following days, due to increasing solar activity and a calmer state of the Earth's magnetosphere, shortwave propagation should improve again. However, if another large solar flare occurs, the development could be much more dramatic. Another reason for the current instability of shortwave conditions is the rise in Summer sporadic-E layer activity in the northern hemisphere.

Spaceweather.com reports NOAA forecasters say a G2 class geomagnetic storm is possible on May 31 when a CME grazes earth. But a NASA forecast suggests a near miss. This is from a CME at 1433 UTC on May 29 from sunspot group AR3664.

More on sunspot group AR3664: ÿ

https://bit.ly/4bAeJKA[1] ÿ

https://bit.ly/3wY48tT[2] ÿ

https://tinyurl.com/2p9c98tm[3] ÿ

https://tinyurl.com/mskr6ptb[4] ÿ

https://tinyurl.com/ypnjcc6d[5] ÿ

https://tinyurl.com/2pvuk5db[6]

The latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:
https://youtu.be/O2Y9QGLMvsc[7] ÿ

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9].

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices: ÿ https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[11]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

Sunspot numbers for May 23 through 29 2024 were 130, 100, 106, 148, 116, 141, and 131, with a mean of 124.6. 10.7 cm flux was 176.2, 162.8, 152.4, 155.6, 170, 166.4, and 170.5, with a mean of 164.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 9, 6, 10, 8, 6, and 6, with a mean of 7.9. Middle latitude A index was 10, 11, 6, 10, 9, 7, and 10, with a mean of 8.

NNNN
/EXÿ ÿÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/4bAeJKA
[2] https://bit.ly/3wY48tT
[3] https://tinyurl.com/2p9c98tm
[4] https://tinyurl.com/mskr6ptb
[5] https://tinyurl.com/ypnjcc6d
[6] https://tinyurl.com/2pvuk5db
[7] https://youtu.be/O2Y9QGLMvsc
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

06/07/2024

This reporting week (May 30 to June 5) our Sun was active, with nine
new sunspot groups.

One emerged on May 30, another on May 31, two more on June 1,
another on June 2, three more on June 3, and one more on June 4.

Average daily sunspot number rose from 124.6 to 183.4, and average
daily solar flux from 164.8 to 184.8.

Predicted solar flux is 190 on June 7-9, 170 on June 10-19, 180 on
June 20, 190 on June 21-23, 195 on June 24 and 25, 200 on June 26,
205 on June 27-29, 180 on June 30, then 185, 185 and 180 on July
1-3, 175 on July 4-7, 180 and 175 on July 8-9, and 170 on July
10-16.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10 and 8 on June 7-9, 5 on June
10-18, 8 on June 19-20, then 5, 8 and 8 on June 21-23, and 5 on June
24 to July 6, then 8, 10, and 8 on July 7-9, and 5 on July 10-15.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - June 6, 2024 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"The rise in solar activity is confirmed by the average sunspot
number for May, 171.7, which is the highest in 22 years. Plugging
this into the formula for calculating the smoothed 12-month average
gives 127.8 for last November. As a consequence of the high solar
activity, including CME flares, there were a large number of
geomagnetic storms in May. The largest of these occurred on 10-11
May, while accompanied by auroras, easily observable even at
mid-latitudes.

"Shortwave conditions were above average on only six days out of the
entire month of May, and mostly poor on half of the days in response
to a total of seven one- to three-day disturbed intervals. The worst
day was May 11. In addition, a summertime sporadic-E layer
contributed to the erratic development, especially in the
mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

"While the two large sunspot groups, AR3663 and AR3664 (AR3691 and
AR3697 in June), continue to have a magnetic configuration conducive
to the production of large flares, there are fewer of them than in
May, and the evolution of propagation conditions is therefore more
regular, and the occurrence of above-average days is more frequent.
The number of sunspot groups increased from seven to twelve during
the first six days of June.

"Although the sunspot number and the solar flux (which is the power
flux of solar radio noise at the 10.7 cm wavelength) may still be
increasing, a repeat of the large disturbances experienced in May is
unlikely in the near term."

On June 3, Glenn Packard, K4ZOT, wrote:

"I just received your Propagation Report and was reading it when a
near miracle happened. Hawaii 6M FT8 station (KH6HI) came in on my
JTAlert program here - South of Atlanta, GA - 06/3.ÿ Also, worked
several west Coast stations (VE7DX, KF7PG, etc.) as well in rapid
succession before the band changed.ÿ Very rare indeed to even hear a
HI station in Atlanta."

An article about Astrophotographer Andrew McCarthy:

https://mymodernmet.com/andrew-mccarthy-sunspot-time-lapse/[1]

The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/8WzEbOeWVfk[2]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[3]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for May 30 through June 5, 2024 were 144, 135, 194,
186, 208, 224, and 193, with a mean of 183.4. 10.7 cm flux was
172.9, 179.4, 188, 179.8, 186, 192.3, and 195.3, with a mean of
184.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 12, 5, 5, 11, 8, and 7,
with a mean of 8. Middle latitude A index was 10, 14, 6, 5, 13, 8,
and 10, with a mean of 9.4.

ÿ


[1] https://mymodernmet.com/andrew-mccarthy-sunspot-time-lapse/
[2] https://youtu.be/8WzEbOeWVfk
[3] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

06/14/2024

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0650 UTC/14 JUNE 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"A weak halo CME may impact Earth either on late UTC day 15-Jun or
else early UTC day 16-Jun.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 15-16 JUNE 2024"

Solar activity was lower over the past reporting week, June 6-12.

Ten new sunspot groups emerged, two on June 6, one on June 7, two on
June 9, and five on June 12.

Average daily sunspot number dropped from 44 points from 183.4 to
139.4, and average daily solar flux from 184.8 to 179.2.

Average daily planetary A index went from 8 to 11.6, and middle
latitude numbers from 9.4 to 11.1.

The most active day geomagnetically was June 7, when the planetary A
index was 28. Alaska's College A index was 38. This was an
unexpected G2 geomagnetic storm that commenced at 1130 UTC.

Spaceweather.com[1] reports a polar cap absorption event on June 12-13.
Protons from the Sun are raining down on Earth, and it is causing
shortwave blackouts. You can monitor it here:

https://bit.ly/3Vpopko[2]

Predicted solar flux shows a peak at 205 on June 26-29 and again on
July 23-26.

The forecast shows flux at 170 on June 14, 175 on June 15-17, then
180 on June 18-20, then 185, 190 and 195 on June 21-23, 200 on June
24-25, 205 on June 26-29, then 200, 190, 180, 175, 170, 165, 160 and
175 on June 30 through July 7, then 170 on July 8-9, 165 on July
10-11, 155 on July 12-13, then 165 and 175 on July 14-15, 185 on
July 16-18, then 190, 195 and 200 on July 19-21.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12 and 15 on June 14-16, then 8 on
June 17-18, then 5 on June 19-21, then 8 on Jun 22-23, then 5 on
June 24-29, 8 on June 30 and July 1, and 5 on July 2-6, then 8 on
July 7, 5 on July 8-15, then 8, 8, 5, 8 and 8 on July on July 16-20.

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - June 13, 2024, from OK1HH:

"Despite the fact that the large sunspot group responsible for the
geomagnetic disturbances and the beautiful auroras of May 10-11 is
now on the far side of the Sun, its flares are showering the Earth's surroundings with a rain of protons. On the whole, however, there is
no doubt that after its reappearance at the eastern edge of the
solar disk, solar activity will again increase significantly, with
solar flux values exceeding 200 in late June and early July.

"For now, we will be content with the consequences of a slight
decrease in overall solar activity, although moderate solar flares
are no exception. Upswells in geomagnetic activity occur only
occasionally and most days are quiet to unsettled. Summer prevails
in the Earth's northern hemisphere, and sporadic-E layer events
contribute even more than solar events to the erratic shortwave
propagation conditions here.

"With the exception of the two largest active regions, however,
there is little going on at present on the far side of the Sun, and
so July already seems to be considerably quieter than May and June
were."

Radiation risks for Mars astronauts:

https://bit.ly/4b272M7[3]

Viewing sunspots from Mars:

https://go.nasa.gov/3RsTP87[4]

May solar images from various online sources:

https://bit.ly/45lmVvS[5]

https://bit.ly/3VFwCCb[6]

https://www.space.com/sun-solar-storm-may-10-timelapse[7]

https://bigthink.com/hard-science/sun-activity-2024/[8]

Next weekend is ARRL Field Day, June 22-23. Solar flux and sunspot
numbers should be rising at that time, and predicted planetary A
index is a moderate 8.

There will be an updated forecast in next week's bulletin.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[9]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[15]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16] .

Sunspot numbers for June 6 through 12 2024 were 149, 150, 143, 148,
146, 95, and 145, with a mean of 139.4. 10.7 cm flux was 190.9,
184.4, 190.4, 180.9, 177.8, 164.9, and 164.9, with a mean of 179.2.
Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 28, 14, 5, 11, 12, and 5, with
a mean of 11.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 20, 15, 6, 11, 13,
and 6, with a mean of 11.1.
ÿ


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://bit.ly/3Vpopko
[3] https://bit.ly/4b272M7
[4] https://go.nasa.gov/3RsTP87
[5] https://bit.ly/45lmVvS
[6] https://bit.ly/3VFwCCb
[7] https://www.space.com/sun-solar-storm-may-10-timelapse
[8] https://bigthink.com/hard-science/sun-activity-2024/
[9] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

06/21/2024

Sunspot numbers rose this week, with the average changing from 139.4
to 149.6, but average daily solar flux only shifted from 179.2 to
178.

Only four sunspot groups emerged this week. There was one on June 15
and three on June 19.

Average daily planetary A index only changed from 11.6 to 10.3.

Predicted solar flux is 205 and 210 on June 21-22, then 200 June
23-27, then 190, 185, and 190, on June 28-30, then 190, 195, 190,
185 and 190 on July 1-5, 180 on July 6-7, 165 on July 8-9, 180 on
July 10, then 170 on July 11-13, 175 on July 14, 180 on July 15-17,
175 on July 18-19, 190 on July 20-21, then 180, 175, 180, 190, 180,
185 and 190 on July 22-28.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 12 and 10 on June 21-23, then 5
on June 24-29, 8 on Jun 30 to July 1, then 5 on July 2-14, then 12,
8, 8, and 5 on July 15-18, 8 on July 19-20, and 5 on July 21-26,
then 8 on July 27-28.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - June 20, 2024, from OK1HH.

F.K. Janda is going on vacation and will not have a report for us
over the next few weeks.

"Watching the Sun at its current 11-year peak of activity is
certainly not boring. On the contrary, we are experiencing quite
frequent surprises. For example, a week ago we observed an increased attenuation of radio waves in the polar region (PCA = POLAR CAP
ABSORPTION EVENT), caused by protons coming from the far side of the
Sun. Then, on 15 June (at 1157 UTC), a cloud of particles
unexpectedly hit the Earth, triggering a weak G1 class geomagnetic
storm.

"Over the next few days, AR3712 became larger, followed by AR3713
and AR3716. All three of these large sunspot groups are already
located in the western half of the solar disk, where particles from
a possible larger flare are more likely to hit Earth. In addition,
all three regions have an unstable magnetic field and are therefore
more likely to have M- or X-class flares.

"Of the largest sunspot groups observed this cycle, two will soon
reappear on the eastern limb of the solar disk (in May they were
designated AR3663 and AR3664). The first of these will begin to
emerge on the solar disk this weekend. The second, and then largest
group, will follow a few days after that. Fortunately, solar
activity will remain high, but unfortunately, changes in propagation
conditions will be harder to predict."

From the European Space Agency:

https://bit.ly/3VQt54j[1]

AR3712 and flares:

https://bit.ly/3xiIGAa[2]

Reverse magnetic field:

https://gigazine.net/gsc_news/en/20240617-sun-magnetic-field-flip/[3]

This video about the Sun's corona is undated:

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x90o8gw[4]

Polar cap absorption event:

https://bit.ly/3REcY7b[5]

https://bit.ly/3REhuTb[6]

Latest videos from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/J3XdqnWYNh4[7]

https://youtu.be/tzfvKObBf_w[8]

This weekend is ARRL Field Day, and the forecast looks good, with
high solar flux at 200 and 190.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[9]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

Also, check this QST article on Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[15]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16] .

Sunspot numbers for June 13 through 19 2024 were 142, 117, 134, 152,
171, 150, and 181, with a mean of 149.6. 10.7 cm flux was 170.1,
169, 170.7, 167.3, 179.9, 192.7, and 196, with a mean of 178.
Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 6, 19, 13, 11, 10, and 9, with
a mean of 10.3. Middle latitude A index was 5, 8, 18, 9, 11, 11, and
9, with a mean of 10.1.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3VQt54j
[2] https://bit.ly/3xiIGAa
[3] https://gigazine.net/gsc_news/en/20240617-sun-magnetic-field-flip/
[4] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x90o8gw
[5] https://bit.ly/3REcY7b
[6] https://bit.ly/3REhuTb
[7] https://youtu.be/J3XdqnWYNh4
[8] https://youtu.be/tzfvKObBf_w
[9] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

06/28/2024

ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0538UTC/28 JUNE 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE:

"A glancing blow from a recent CME is expected to arrive late on UT
day 28-Jun. Additional to this, solar wind parameter Bz has been
oriented southward for approximately 15 hours. Combined this may
induce G1 geomagnetic conditions. A second CME is expected to arrive
late on UT day 29-Jun and may also cause G1 geomagnetic conditions.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 28-29 JUNE 2024."

Nine new sunspot groups emerged over this reporting week, June
20-26.

Two appeared on June 21, four on June 23, two more on June 25 and
one on June 26.

Average daily sunspot number declined from 149.6 to 141.6, but
average daily solar flux increased from 178 to 195.1.

Average planetary A index declined from 10.3 to 7.

Predicted solar flux for the near term is 182 on June 28-30, then
180, 185, 180, 175, and 190 on July 1-5, 180 on July 6-7, then 165,
165 and 180 on July 8-10, 170 on July 11-13, then 180, 190 and 195
on July 14-16, then 200 on July 17-18, 195 on July 19-20, 190 on
July 21-28, then 195, 190, 185 and 190 on July 29 through August 1,
and 180 on August 2-3.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 15 on June 28-29, 5 on June 30
through July 13, then 10, 10 and 8 on July 14-16, 5 on July 17-19, 8
on July 20, then 5 on July 21-26, 8 on July 27-28, and 5 on July 29
to August 9.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 28 - July 04,
2024, from Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague, Institute of Geophysics of the
ASCR, Prague, Department of Geomagnetism Budkov observatory (BDV):

"Quiet: June 30 to July 1, 3 and 4

"Unsettled: June 28 and 29, July 1 and 2

"Active: possible June 28 and 29, July 2

"Minor storm: 0

"Major storm: 0

"Severe storm: 0

"Next week, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions. Two unsettled
to active events are possible next week.

"The first one is possible about June 28 - 29, and the other one,
but unlikely, about July 2. Other days, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions."

George Hoffman, W7POE, wrote in an email:

"A question some of us have is, with the quite high SFI and SSN
numbers, why is the MUF around the Washington state region never
much above 21 MHz these days? For me 10 meters was totally dead
during Field Day. I haven't seen MUFs in the 30 MHz region for
several weeks now. Wonder if you could shed some light on this
puzzling issue. Thanks."

I replied that I suspect this is because of seasonal variation.

I used the W6ELprop program to estimate MUF over a specific path
(Dallas, Texas from Seattle) with an estimated smoothed sunspot
number of 133.

For the current date (June 27) it shows the MUF at about 22 MHz, day
and night.

But when I change the date back closer to the Spring Equinox (just
before March 28), the MUF is highest from 2030-2100 UTC at 34.7 MHz.

It also shows MUF above 28 MHz from 1530-0230 UTC.

George also shared a very useful link:

https://prop.kc2g.com/[1]

George replied:

"I also just ran W6ELprop and got 22 MHz for the Burien to Dallas
path and 17.6 MHz for the Burien to New York path. Anyway, I will
wait around for 10 meter openings.ÿ Thanks again."

William Paul, KD6JUI, of Dixon, California wrote in an email:

"I was operating from my kayak again on Field Day.ÿ 10 watts into a
homebrew loop. My ops were all SSB.

"Only heard one (1!) station on 10m, so all my operating was
confined to 15m. I had enough exchanges to keep me happy but there
was a lot of fading. Didn't hear any foreign stations coming in.

"Did get some fine photos of bees pollinating water flowers.

"Maybe if Field Day were held in December and with the same high
solar flux, 15 and 10 meters would've been a lot more active."

K7RA comment: "There is Winter Field Day in January."

NASA images:

https://bit.ly/3LmluV7[2]

Solar max and climate:

https://tinyurl.com/mu6wv455[3]

Active sunspot returns:

https://tinyurl.com/nhcpu46h[4]

https://tinyurl.com/fjea8zf8[5]

Big sunspot:

https://tinyurl.com/tuc8kyee[6]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[13]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14] .

Sunspot numbers for June 20 through 26 2024 were 138, 133, 139, 176,
141, 129, and 135, with a mean of 149.6. 10.7 cm flux was 203.3,
196.9, 195.7, 195.8, 198.7, 193.7, and 181.4, with a mean of 178.
Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 5, 4, 10, 5, 9, and 9, with a
mean of 10.3. Middle latitude A index was 8, 4, 6, 12, 7, 9, and 8,
with a mean of 10.1.
NNNN
/EX

ÿ


[1] https://prop.kc2g.com/
[2] https://bit.ly/3LmluV7
[3] https://tinyurl.com/mu6wv455
[4] https://tinyurl.com/nhcpu46h
[5] https://tinyurl.com/fjea8zf8
[6] https://tinyurl.com/tuc8kyee
[7] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[12] http://k9la.us/
[13] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/05/2024

Solar activity increased this week, with average daily sunspot numbers rising from 149.6 to 181.6. For some reason average daily solar flux decreased from 178 to 175.

Seven new sunspot groups emerged this week, one on June 27, two on June 28, three on June 29, and one more on July 3.

Average daily planetary index rose from 10.3 to 15.6 while average middle latitude A index rose from 10.1 to 11.6.

On Friday, June 28, a CME caused a severe G4 class geomagnetic storm. Middle latitude A index was 32 and planetary A index was 59, much higher than Alaska's college A index (36).

Predicted solar flux is 175, 172 and 168 on July 5 to 7, 160 on July 8 and 9, 155 on July 10 and 11, 170 on July 12 and 13, 180 on July 14, 175 on July 15 to 17, 180 on July 18 to 21, 185 on July 22, 180 on July 23 to 29, 175 on July 30, 170 on July 31 through August 9 and 180 on August 10.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 5, 12 and 10 on July 5 to 9, 5 on July 10 to 13, then 10, 10 and 8 on July 14 to 16, 5 on July 17 to 19, then 10 and 8 on July 20 and 21, and 5 on July 22 through August 9, and 10 on August 10 and 11.

"Geomagnetic activity forecast for July 5 to 11, 2024

Quiet: July 5 to 7, 9 and 10

Unsettled: July 7 and 8, 11

Active: possible July 8, 11

Minor storm: 0

Major storm: 0

Severe storm: 0

"Next week, we expect at most quiet to unsettled conditions. More unsettled conditions with possible isolated active event are possible about July 7 and 8, and also at the end of the current forecast period, about Thursday, July 11." Tomas Bayer RWC Prague Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR Department of Geomagnetism Budkov Observatory

2023 NOAA updates:

https://www.weather.gov/news/102523-solar-cycle-25-update[1]

https://bit.ly/3XRnufb[2]

https://bit.ly/3VT7net[3]

Latest from Tamitha Skov, KX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/kGUb15uWzBw[4]

Blackout: https://bit.ly/45R9PqD[5]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8] . ÿ

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10] .ÿ


More good information and tutorials on propagation are at

http://k9la.us/[11]

Also, check this: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[12]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13] .

Sunspot numbers for June 27 through July 3 2024 were 146, 162, 205, 192, 192, 192, and 182, with a mean of 181.6. 10.7 cm flux was 182.5, 180.7, 186.4, 173.8, 170.6, 163.8, and 167.4, with a mean of 175. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 59, 14, 11, 6, 5, and 5, with a mean of 15.6. Middle latitude A index was 11, 32, 11, 10, 5, 6, and 6, with a mean of 11.6.


[1] https://www.weather.gov/news/102523-solar-cycle-25-update
[2] https://bit.ly/3XRnufb
[3] https://bit.ly/3VT7net
[4] https://youtu.be/kGUb15uWzBw
[5] https://bit.ly/45R9PqD
[6] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[11] http://k9la.us/
[12] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/12/2024

New sunspot groups, nine in all, emerged on every day of this reporting week, July 4 to 10. One on July 4, another on July 5, two more on July 6, another each on July 7 and July 8, two more on July 9 and another on July 10.

On July 11, two more sunspot groups emerged, and the total sunspot area expanded by 13 per cent.

Despite the appearance of so many new sunspots, average daily sunspot number declined from 181.6 to 129, compared to the previous week. Average daily solar flux barely moved, changing from 175 to 176.6.

Predicted solar flux for the next month is 205 on July 12 and 13, 210 on July 14 and 15, 205 on July 16 to 18, 195 on July 19 and 20, 200 on July 21 to 25, 190 on July 26, 180 on July 27 to 29, 175 on July 30, and 170 on July 31 through August 2, then 165 on August 3 to 6, 160 on August 7 and 8, 175 on August 9, 180 on August 10 to 13, 195 on August 14 to 16, and 200 on August 17 to 21.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 15, 18, 12 and 8 on July 12 to 16, 5 on July 17 to 20, then 10 and 8 on July 21 and 22, then 5 on July 23 to August 3, then 12, 10, and 5 on August 4 to 6, then 12, 8 and 5 on August 7 to 9, then 12, 10 and 8 on August 10 to 12, then 5 on August 13 to 15, and 10 and 8 on August 16 and 17 and 5 on August 18 and beyond.

Tamitha Skov wrote in an email on Wednesday:

We have a new big flare player rotating through the Earth-strike zone with some X-flare potential. Region 3738 has been growing rapidly over the past 24 hours, with some new spot clusters emerging right in the center of the original set. This kind of growth is highly magnetically unstable and is upping the noise on the day-side radio bands.

As of earlier today, we had already popped a couple of low-level M-class flares and now are approaching the R1-radio blackout level for a noise floor. That is quick growth! I did my best to estimate the conditions for the coming week in these 5-day Outlooks, but in the time it has taken to generate them, the region's growth has accelerated.

It looks like I will need to update the Solar Flare and Day side Radio Blackout Outlook in the above snapshot to something closer to a 60 per cent chance of M-Class flares and a 15 per cent chance of X-class flares. I will do this asap!

Other than Region 3738, we do have a pocket of fast solar wind coming that could give us a decent chance of aurora at high latitudes over the early part of the weekend. This is the only solar storm possibility for now, although we could see a new Earth-directed solar storm launch over the next few days! I will go over this possibility and the new fireworks from Region 3738 in the upcoming forecast I am shooting now.

Dr. Tamitha Skov has many videos of interest to our readers.ÿ You can find them here:

https://www.youtube.com/c/TamithaSkov[1]

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, July 11, 2024 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

In early July, a sunspot group responsible for the May 10 superstorm reappeared on the southeastern limb. By the way, this superstorm caused thousands of satellites to drop in altitude, according to a research paper just accepted by the Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets.

The aforementioned group was designated AR3664 at the time, in subsequent solar rotations AR3697, AR3723, is visible again, while in the same region are now AR3742, AR3743, and AR3745.

The most active is the rapidly growing AR3768, five times the size of the Earth. Most importantly, there is a coronal hole to the north of AR3768. Between mentioned CH and AR we can expect a source of enhanced solar wind that will very likely head towards the Earth and cause a geomagnetic disturbance on July 13 and 14. Ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions, randomly influenced by sporadic layer E in the northern hemisphere of the Earth during the summer, affected by numerous solar flares will develop, but less regularly.

Cycles 24 and 25 compared: https://bit.ly/3Y05gIM[2]

Sunspot number calculations and the peak of the cycle: https://yhoo.it/3WjX5Wg[3]ÿ

Five flares: https://bit.ly/3WlwuqT[4]

David Moore sent this about solar convection: ÿ

https://bit.ly/3WlQCKF[5]

Solar max: https://bit.ly/3xK36lR[6]

New look at Maunder minima: https://bit.ly/3WgVoJh[7]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10]

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13]

Also, check this: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[14] ÿ

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15].

Sunspot numbers for July 4 through 10 2024 were 113, 111, 132, 119, 95, 143, and 190, with a mean of 129. 10.7 cm flux was 173, 165.6, 166, 171.3, 168.5, 178.2, and 213.6, with a mean of 176.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 8, 3, 8, 10, 6, and 6, with a mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A Index was 10, 10, 4, 7, 11, 8, and 8, with a mean of 8.3.


[1] https://www.youtube.com/c/TamithaSkov
[2] https://bit.ly/3Y05gIM
[3] https://yhoo.it/3WjX5Wg
[4] https://bit.ly/3WlwuqT
[5] https://bit.ly/3WlQCKF
[6] https://bit.ly/3xK36lR
[7] https://bit.ly/3WgVoJh
[8] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[13] http://k9la.us/
[14] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/19/2024

Big increase in solar activity this week, with average daily sunspot number rising from 129 to 215.9, and solar flux from 176.6 to 226.5.

Fourteen new sunspot groups emerged. Two were on July 11, one on July 12, three on July 13, one on July 14, two more on July 15, three more on July 16 and two more on July 17.

On Thursday (after the reporting week) the daily sunspot number was 276, the highest value for cycle 25, according to Jon Jones, N0JK. A new sunspot group appeared that day.

Average planetary A index was quiet at 6, and the middle latitude number was 8.

More quiet geomagnetic indicators are forecast for the entire month of August, with planetary A index predicted at 5 on every day.

Predicted solar flux is 210 on July 19-21, 200 on July 22-25, 180 on July 26-27, 175 on July 28, 170 on July 29-31, 165 on August 1-2, then 170, 180 and 190 on August 3-5, 200 on August 6-11, and 230 on August 12-14, then 210 on August 15, 200 on August 16-18, then 195 and 185 on August 19-20, and 180 on August 21-23.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 16, 20 and 8 on July 19-22, and 5 on July 23 through the entire month of August and possibly the first week in September.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for July 18, 2024.

Increased solar flare activity continues. M-class eruptions are almost the order of the day and X-class eruptions are no exception. Their main source is currently the largest AR3751. While it is still in the southeast quadrant of the solar disk, it will cross the central meridian as early as July 19. After that the probability of an Earth impact by a possible CME will increase. In the southwest quadrant we observe five sunspot groups: AR 3742, AR3743, AR3745, AR3747 and AR3758, which were formed by the spill of the original extremely active May AR3664 (designated as AR3697, AR3723 in subsequent solar rotations).

Solar activity remains high and geomagnetic disturbances are less frequent and do not last long. Ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions, although mostly slightly above average level, vary irregularly. The sporadic layer E will continue for a few more weeks. We will continue to see fading during the day, in particular at lower shortwave frequencies (on the 7 MHz band and much more often and longer on 3.5 MHz) during moderate flares. Entire shortwave bursts will die down here and there during the largest flares, especially long-lasting X-class flares.ÿ F. K. Janda, OK1HH

Video from Tamitha Skov: https://youtu.be/GLBIY3bbdQE[1]

Solar Flare: https://bit.ly/3Wp9wjA[2]

Martian aurora: https://bit.ly/4cJ2L21[3]

Blackouts: https://bit.ly/468L89c[4] ÿÿhttps://bit.ly/3LrTxex[5]

https://bit.ly/3Lx0ye6[6] ÿÿhttps://bit.ly/3Y7Lgnq[7]

Cycle 26: https://bit.ly/3YaG02h[8]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[9] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11].

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . ÿ

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] ÿ

Also, check this: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[15] ÿ

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16] .

Sunspot numbers for July 11 through 17 2024 were 188, 162, 214, 217, 205, 250, and 275, with a mean of 215.9. 10.7 cm flux was 205, 209.7, 238.3, 233.9, 233.2, 241.9, and 223.8, with a mean of 226.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 5, 4, 5, 7, 10, and 5, with a mean of 6. Middle latitude A Index was 7, 7, 6, 9, 8, 12, and 7, with a mean of 8.

ÿ


[1] https://youtu.be/GLBIY3bbdQE
[2] https://bit.ly/3Wp9wjA
[3] https://bit.ly/4cJ2L21
[4] https://bit.ly/468L89c
[5] https://bit.ly/3LrTxex
[6] https://bit.ly/3Lx0ye6
[7] https://bit.ly/3Y7Lgnq
[8] https://bit.ly/3YaG02h
[9] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/09/2024

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0211UT/09 AUGUST 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"Recent CME activity is expected to increase geomagnetic activity from mid 09-Aug and on 10-Aug. Further CME activity on 08-Aug is now expected to also increase geomagnetic activity on 11-Aug.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 09-12 AUGUST 2024 GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST

09 Aug: G0, chance of G1 late in UT day

10 Aug: G1-G2

11 Aug: G1-G2

12 Aug: G1 periods early in UT day, then G0

Solar activity jumped over the past reporting week (August 1-7) with average daily sunspot number rising from 208.9 to 222.3 and solar flux from 207.3 to 255.3.

Spaceweather.com reported that sunspot numbers have reached a 23-year high. On August 8 the daily sunspot number climbed to 332. We must be at the peak of cycle 25, but I hope we have more to go.

Geomagnetic numbers were fundamentally unchanged, with average daily planetary A index shifting from 14 to 15.7 and middle latitude index from 13.1 to 13.4.

Seven new sunspot groups emerged. One on August 1, two on August 2, three on August 4 and one on August 7.

Predicted solar flux shows 300 on August 9-10, then 260, 250, 270 and 280 on August 11-14, then 300, 205, 200 and 185 on August 15-18, 180 on August 19-22, 200 and 210 on August 23-24, 220 on August 25-26, 235 on August 27-28, 245 on August 29- 30, and 240 on August 31 through September 7, then 230, 225 and 210 on September 8-10, 205 on September 11-12, then 200 and 185 on September 13-14, and 180 on September 15-18. ÿ

Predicted planetary A index is 34, 52, 36 and 22 on August 9-12, 5 on August 13-21, then 10 and 8 on August 22-23, 5 on August 24 to September 11, 8 on September 12, and 5 on September 13-17.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for August 8, 2024 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"Of the five sunspot groups that moved from the southeast quadrant of the solar disk to the southwest during the past seven days, two of them (AR 3774 and AR 3777) are seeing moderate eruptions almost daily.

"There were three such eruptions on August 7 alone, while CMEs were observed in two of them. Their arrival on Earth is scheduled for August 10. It could cause a geomagnetic disturbance in the G2 (moderate) to G3 (strong) level. Which could be good news for the initial stage of development of decameter wave propagation conditions.

"But if the ejected clouds of particles of solar origin are faster and arrive already on the night of August 9-10, this is bad news for subsequent developments. We'll see.

"In a few days, the current largest active region AR 3780 will be located in the southwest quadrant of the solar disk.

"Sunspot activity in July was the highest it has been in 23 years. ÿThe average monthly sunspot number for July 2024 was 196.5. The last time this happened was in 2001. The last smoothed average can be calculated for this January: R12 = 131.1."

Solar Terrestrial Centre of Excellence Newsletter. https://bit.ly/4dfSj1Y[1]

The Worked All Europe CW DX Contest is this weekend. https://www.darc.de/der-club/referate/conteste/wae-dx-contest/en/[2]

Predicting solar max: https://bit.ly/3AafcFu[3]

Flare August 8-9: https://bit.ly/4dDAPg1[4]

Aurora: https://bit.ly/3WWq3f2[5]

From David Moore: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/07/240730134746.htm[6]

Sunspot number hits 23 year high:

https://bit.ly/3LURJej[7]

https://bit.ly/46AGnFL[8]

https://aussiedlerbote.de/en/active-sun-many-sunspots-are-visible/[9]

https://bit.ly/3AdejvP[10]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[11] .ÿ When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[12]ÿand the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[13] .

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[14] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[15] .ÿ

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[16] .

Also, check this: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[17] .

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[18] .

Sunspot numbers for August 1 through 7, 2024 were 260, 232, 217, 194, 189, 222, and 242, with a mean of 222.3. 10.7 cm flux was 234.4, 247.1, 244.6, 240.8, 247.3, 270, and 303.2, with a mean of 255.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 22, 9, 10, 46, 10, 6, and 7, with a mean of 15.7. Middle latitude A Index was 22, 9, 9, 28, 10, 8, and 8, with a mean of 13.4.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/4dfSj1Y
[2] https://www.darc.de/der-club/referate/conteste/wae-dx-contest/en/
[3] https://bit.ly/3AafcFu
[4] https://bit.ly/4dDAPg1
[5] https://bit.ly/3WWq3f2
[6] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/07/240730134746.htm
[7] https://bit.ly/3LURJej
[8] https://bit.ly/46AGnFL
[9] https://aussiedlerbote.de/en/active-sun-many-sunspots-are-visible/
[10] https://bit.ly/3AdejvP
[11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[12] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[13] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[14] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[16] http://k9la.us/
[17] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[18] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/16/2024

With sunspot numbers and solar flux at times both above 300, recent daily space weather has been exciting for radio amateurs who watch the sun. We like higher activity because it correlates with a dense ionosphere, bringing with it better conditions on higher frequencies.

This extreme activity also comes with greater geomagnetic disturbance, which cause higher absorption of HF signals.ÿ

For example, on August 12 the solar flux was 272.4 and sunspot number was 245. Middle latitude A index was 51 and planetary A index was 122, very high values indicating the G4 geomagnetic storm.

Seven new sunspot groups appeared this week, two on August 8, four on August 11 and one on August 14.

On August 9 the daily sunspot number was 382, the highest in two decades.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 222.3 to 255, while average daily solar flux increased from 255.3 to 284.9.

Average daily planetary A index went from 15.7 to 28.6, and average daily middle latitude A index (measured at a single magnetometer in Virginia) from 13.4 to 17.9.

The solar flux outlook for the next few weeks looks promising, with values peaking at 300 in the first week of September.

Predicted values from forecasters Jones and Kiser at the US Air Force are 230, 225 and 220 on August 16-18, 215 on August 19-20, then 210, 205, 200 and 210 on August 21-24, 220 on August 25-26, 235 on August 27-28, 245 on August 29-30, then 240, 245 and 270 on August 31 through September 2, 300 on September 3-5, 290 on September 6-7, 280 on September 8, and 270 on September 9-11, then 260 on September 12-14, then 250, 240, 230, 210, 200 and 210 on September 15-20, and 220 on September 21-22.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 18, 30, 25 and 10 on August 16-20, then 5, 5 and 8 on August 21-23, then 5 on August 24 to September 17, then 18 and 12 on September 18-19, and 5 on September 10 until November.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for August 15, 2024 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

The current maximum of the "eleven-year" solar cycle is gradually surpassing all expectations and all predictions. Medium-mass flares (M-class) are observed almost daily and are often intense enough to silence radio signals at least in the longer part of short waves by increasing the attenuation in the lower ionosphere. Large solar flares (X-class) are no exception. They usually (shortly) knock out the entire shortwave range.

Many eruptions are accompanied by a particle cloud ejection (CME). If this happens near or west of the central meridian, it is very likely to "hit" the globe and cause a geomagnetic disturbance. In the case of multiple particle clouds flying toward the Earth at the same time, the first one may clear the way for the following ones, causing an extremely strong disturbance. Which is exactly what we saw on August 11-12.

The geomagnetic disturbance reached G4 level, while not only auroras were observed in mid-latitudes during the disturbance, but also a phenomenon known as STEVE (Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement), until relatively recently confused with auroras. We observe it as a colored tilted ribbon. Thanks to the simultaneous peak of the Perseids meteor shower, we were able to witness a truly extraordinary spectacle.

The height of the highest critical frequencies of the f0F2 layer, and thus the MUF, was on average at an eleven-year low of solar activity on August 12. However, with the difference that as the radio wave passed through the ionosphere, a large attenuation was produced, largely due to scattering on inhomogeneities. The improvement in propagation conditions was slow and gradual. A slightly better 13 August was followed by a deterioration on 14 August. Situation was only slightly above average on 15 August. But with that said, we already knew of other CMEs heading towards Earth.

We don't expect a drop in solar activity anytime soon, if only because we know of other active regions on the far side of the Sun thanks to helioseismological observations. Soon we will be able to observe them on the eastern edge of the solar disk.

W3LPL wrote in an email: ÿ

"Ain't this solar maximum great?

Solar Cycle 25 is now much, much stronger than anyone anticipated, and it s slowly growing stronger through at least this weekend.

Today's Wednesday estimated international sunspot number is 281. ÿIt's increasingly likely that we'll have widespread coast-to-coast and worldwide 6 meter F2 propagation during about half of the days between late October and at least early February.

Widespread F2 openings are likely to bring 6 meter CW and SSB to life like we haven't experienced in more than 20 years.

The first sign of enhanced 6 meter F2 will be increasingly frequent TEP from Europe and North America to South America and the South Atlantic islands. TEP may begin very sporadically by late August and become increasingly frequent later in September and especially during October.

Coast-to-coast F2 propagation and propagation crossing the Atlantic to Europe and Africa may begin sporadically during September and October and become frequent and long lasting by early November.

Effective 6 meter antennas can be very small.

3 element Yagis are small, lightweight and very effective. 20 foot antenna height is adequate but sloping terrain or higher antennas perform much better. Heights higher that 50 feet are not necessary and in many cases perform poorly.

Are you ready for this once in a lifetime experience?"

I want to remind everyone of this useful web site: https://prop.kc2g.com/[1]

Record breaking number of sunspots:

https://www.space.com/sunspots-solar-cycle-25[2]

https://tinyurl.com/k9cnbtt8[3] ÿ

Sky & Telescope: https://tinyurl.com/musyznst[4] ÿ

Massive flare: https://bit.ly/4fPW1Bp[5]

Newsweek on aurora: https://tinyurl.com/3wnckehs[6]

Cycle 26: https://tinyurl.com/3jdhyekc[7] ÿ

Forbes claims quarter century max:

https://tinyurl.com/yhm398ph[8]

Red Deer, Alberta: https://tinyurl.com/y5a7sv3f[9]

Great solar image: https://tinyurl.com/yc84azws[10] ÿ

New report from Tamitha Skov: https://youtu.be/yd1gEZoYpsM[11] ÿ

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[12] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[13]ÿand the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[14]ÿ.

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[15] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at: ÿ

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[16]

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at: http://k9la.us/[17] .

Also, check this: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[18] ÿ

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[19] .

Sunspot numbers for August 8 through 14 2024 were 337, 382, 234, 194, 245, 199, and 194, with a mean of 255. 10.7 cm flux was 336, 305.5, 291.1, 281.5, 272.4, 259.9, and 248.2, with a mean of 284.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 7, 7, 28, 122, 17, and 12, with a mean of 28.6. Middle latitude A Index was 11, 9, 8, 23, 51, 12, and 11, with a mean of 17.9.


[1] https://prop.kc2g.com/
[2] https://www.space.com/sunspots-solar-cycle-25
[3] https://tinyurl.com/k9cnbtt8
[4] https://tinyurl.com/musyznst
[5] https://bit.ly/4fPW1Bp
[6] https://tinyurl.com/3wnckehs
[7] https://tinyurl.com/3jdhyekc
[8] https://tinyurl.com/yhm398ph
[9] https://tinyurl.com/y5a7sv3f
[10] https://tinyurl.com/yc84azws
[11] https://youtu.be/yd1gEZoYpsM
[12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[13] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[14] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[15] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[16] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[17] http://k9la.us/
[18] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[19] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/23/2024

ÿTen new sunspot groups appeared over this reporting week (August 15-21), but both solar flux and sunspot numbers were lower, due to the extraordinary numbers in the previous week.

Average daily sunspot number declined from 255 to 180.3, while average daily solar flux went from 284.9 to 232.7.

Geomagnetic numbers were quieter. Average daily planetary A index declined from 28.6 to 11.9, and average daily middle latitude numbers sank from 17.8 to 12.

On August 17 the planetary A index was 31, caused by a CME around 1400 UTC. A strong G3 geomagnetic storm was the result.

One new sunspot group appeared on August 15, and two more emerged on every day from August 16 to 19, and one more on August 21.

Predicted solar flux is 230 and 235 on August 23-24, then 240 on August 25-26, 230 on August 27, 235 on August 28-29, 205, 210 and 215 on August 30 through September 1, 220 on September 2-3, 225 on September 4-6, 220 on September 7, 225 on September 9, 230 on September 10-12, and 225 on September 13-16, 215 and 210 on September 17-18, 200 on September 19-20, then 205, 210, 205 and 200 on September 21-24, and 205 on September 25-26.

The planetary A index prediction shows 8 on August 23, and 5 on August 24 to September 17, 18 and 12 on September 18-19, then 5 on September 20 through the first week in October.

I get mail asking why ten meters isn't open during all of the recent high solar activity. The reason is the season. We have to be much closer to the autumnal equinox to see ten meters open regularly.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for August 22, 2024 from OK1HH.

"After the solar flare X1.1 on 14 August, accompanied by a CME, we expected a geomagnetic storm. A more accurate prediction was provided by the NASA model - the disturbance in agreement with it started on 17 August around 1400 UT. The geomagnetic storm was strong (G3), probably triggered by the arrival of more than one CME.

We observe two to three sunspot groups on the solar disk that can produce moderate flares (they have a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field). There are usually 10 - 12 groups in total. Coronal holes are few and relatively small, which reduces the likelihood of an increase in solar wind speed. Semi-regularly, days with higher MUF values (until Aug 17, Aug 19 and Aug 21) alternated with decreases (Aug 14, Aug 18, Aug 20...), which could only be predicted to a very limited extent and only for shorter intervals based on measured interplanetary magnetic field variations. But these are mostly impossible to predict."

Solar activity has remained at a 20-year high for most of this summer, and so far there is no indication of a possible decline.

20 year record: https://bit.ly/3ACRphS[1] .

Kepler. Thanks to David Moore for this:

https://cnn.it/3Xff40v[2]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[3] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5] .

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] ÿ

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at

http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this. Understanding Solar Indices from September 2002 QST: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] ÿ

Sunspot numbers for August 15 through 21 2024 were 164, 169, 170, 170, 213, 200, and 176, with a mean of 180.3. 10.7 cm flux was 227.4, 224.9, 229.5, 231, 239.1, 238.2, and 239, with a mean of 232.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 8, 31, 13, 10, 7, and 8, with a mean of 11.9. Middle latitude A Index was 6, 11, 24, 15, 11, 9, and 8, with a mean of 12.


[1] https://bit.ly/3ACRphS
[2] https://cnn.it/3Xff40v
[3] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/30/2024

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0200 UTC/29 AUGUST 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

The solar wind environment remains elevated due to ongoing CME effects.ÿ G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 29-Aug.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FOR 29 AUGUST 2024 GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST 29 Aug: G0-G1."

This week seven new sunspot groups emerged, with two on August 22, one on August 25, two on August 26 and two more on August 28.

Average daily sunspot number declined slightly from 180.3 to 177.1, and average daily solar flux from 232.7 to 229.

Planetary and middle latitude A index averages were about the same, at 12.3 and 12.

Predicted solar flux shows 210, 220 and 215 on August 30 to September 1, 220 on September 2-3, 225 and 230 on September 4-5, 275 on September 6-8, 280, 285, 280 and 280 on September 9-12, then 275, 270, 265, 260, 255, 250, and 245 on September 13-19, then 240 on September 20-21, then 235, 230, 235, 240 and 245 on September 22-26, 250 on September 27-28, then 255, 260, 265 and 270 on September 29 through October 2, and 275 on October 3-5.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on August 30 to September 1, 5 on September 2-16, then 8, 8 and 12 on September 17-19, then 5 on September 20 to mid-October.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for August 29, 2024 from OK1HH.

"About 10 sunspot groups can still be observed in the solar disk, two to four of which have magnetic field configurations that are indicative of middle magnitude flares.

After several solar flares in recent days, the arrival of CMEs to Earth was widely expected. This was also true for the X1.1/2b class flare in AR 3784 (N12E05) with a maximum on August 14 at 0640 UT, accompanied by bursts of solar radio noise types II/IV. However, nothing special continued to happen either. So much so that some authors canceled the predictions of a geomagnetic disturbance on 27 August. Which was a mistake - the disturbance began on the afternoon of August 27, while reaching G2 level.

For the state of the Earth's ionosphere, this happened at the right time. In the positive phase of the disturbance, the highest usable frequencies of the F2 layer increased, while propagation from Europe to the west coast of the USA through the ionospheric waveguides was observed up to around the boundary between HF and VHF.

As expected, on 28 August the evolution in the negative phase of the disturbance continued with a significant decrease in f0F2, including an increase in attenuation.ÿ Surprisingly rapid improvement already occurred on the following day, August 29, while can be attributed not only to the high solar radiation in the ongoing solar cycle maximum, but also to the change in the polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field."

Check Tamitha Skov's latest videos: https://www.youtube.com/user/SpWxfx[1]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[2] .ÿ When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[3] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4] .

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is atÿ

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6]

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7]

Also, check "Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[8]

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9] .

Sunspot numbers for August 22 through 28 2024 were 175, 180, 172, 178, 202, 170, and 163, with a mean of 177.1. 10.7 cm flux was 230.6, 241.7, 232.6, 232.6, 232, 221.3, and 211.9, with a mean of 229. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 7, 10, 7, 5, 11, and 26, with a mean of 12.3. Middle latitude A Index was 11, 8, 12, 8, 4, 11, and 30, with a mean of 12.


[1] https://www.youtube.com/user/SpWxfx
[2] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[3] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/06/2024

Eight new sunspot groups emerged over the past week.

Two appeared on August 30, three more on August 31, another two on
September 2 and one more on September 4.

Average daily sunspot number declined from 177.1 to 155.3, while
average daily solar flux barely changed from 229 to 230.3.

Spaceweather.com[1] reported the average daily sunspot number for
August was 200, the highest monthly average in the past two decades.

Reader David Moore sent in this link about the same thing:

https://bit.ly/4cQHwdD[2]

Predicted solar flux is 235 on September 6, 225 on September 7-8,
230 on September 9-13, then 250, 255 and 245 on September 14-16,
then 240, 235, 240, and 245 on September 17-20, 240 on September
21-22, 245 on September 23-24, then 240, 235, 230 and 225 on
September 25-28, then 230, 240, 245, and 250 on September 29 through
October 2, then 240 on October 3-4, and 245 on October 5-6, 240
again on October 7-10, then 250 and 255 on October 11-12.

Predicted planetary A index is 10 on September 6,and 5 on September
7, 10 on September 8-9, 8 on September 10-11, 5 on September 12-16,
8 on September 17-18, 5 on September 19-25, and 25 on September
26-27, then 15 and 8 on September 28-29, and 5 on September 30
through October 4, 10 on October 5, and 5 on October 6-13.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - September 5, 2024 from OK1HH:

"September 6th was the sixth day of a continuous influx of
solar-origin protons into the Earth's atmosphere. The likely source
is on the far side of the Sun, probably in AR3792, possibly AR3796.
This influx briefly intensified on 3 September at noon UTC.

"Overall solar activity remains high. The solar flux is again close
to the values measured on August 6-13, about 27 days ago, or during
the last solar revolution. Summer in the Earth's northern hemisphere
is slowly coming to an end and shortwave propagation conditions
should improve on average. This is happening, but at a slower and
more erratic pace. The reason for this is the irregular changes in
the activity of the Earth's magnetic field and the parameters of the
solar wind. Sometimes the changes are even opposite to what we would
expect - for example, on 4 September between 1000 to 1500 UTC there
was a rather significant and unexpected increase in geomagnetic
activity, without any major changes in MUF and overall propagation
conditions.

"We are now observing only a single small coronal hole on the Sun
now. It is located near the central meridian and there is no active
region nearby. Respectively, all three larger ARs, capable of
producing eruptions of moderate magnitude, are south of the solar
equator. Accordingly, we find no change in the short-term forecasts
from the current state. More optimistic are the medium-term
forecasts, which take into account seasonal changes."

The "Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence" Newsletter:

https://www.stce.be/newsletter/pdf/2024/STCEnews20240905.pdf[3]

Latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/S07qt59PcWI[4]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ [10].

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[11] "Understanding Solar Indices" from September
2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions toÿ ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

Sunspot numbers for August 29 through September 4 2024 were 124,
143, 180, 156, 200, 133, and 151, with a mean of 155.3. 10.7 cm flux
was 204, 214.2, 232.6, 231.6, 225.5, 242.1, and 261.8, with a mean
of 230.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 23, 26, 16, 8, 7,
and 13, with a mean of 14. Middle latitude A Index was 5, 16, 19,
16, 7, 10, and 16, with a mean of 12.7.

ÿ


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://bit.ly/4cQHwdD
[3] https://www.stce.be/newsletter/pdf/2024/STCEnews20240905.pdf
[4] https://youtu.be/S07qt59PcWI
[5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

Re: The K7RA Solar Update
By: ARRL de WD1CKS to QST on Fri Sep 06 2024 14:35:38

I just recently started reading these updates and find them interesting. However, there are three sections that could be better presented to make the data easier to read, namely, the Predicted Solar Flux, Planetary A Index and Sunspot Numbers.

Throwing the numbers together in a paragraph can make it harder--especially for newbies, like me--to assimilate the information. A tabular arrangement would be more logical for this type of data. For example, here's the Predicted Solar Flux as a table:

Predicted Solar flux
-------------------------------------------------
September 06 - 235 September 26 - 235
September 07-08 - 225 September 27 - 230
September 09-13 - 230 September 28 - 225
September 14 - 250 September 29 - 230
September 15 - 255 September 30 - 240
September 16 - 245 October 01 - 245
September 17 - 240 October 02 - 250
September 18 - 235 October 03-04 - 240
September 19 - 240 October 05-06 - 245
September 20 - 245 October 07-10 - 240
September 21-22 - 240 October 11 - 250
September 23-24 - 245 October 12 - 255
September 25 - 240

A similar approach could be taken with the other two sections mentioned earlier.

Hope this has been helpful. Later daze!

---
þ Synchronet þ End Of The Line BBS - endofthelinebbs.com

Re: The K7RA Solar Update
By: Mortar to ARRL de WD1CKS on Sun Sep 08 2024 09:58 pm

I just recently started reading these updates and find them interesting. However, there are three sections that could be better presented to make the data easier to read, namely, the Predicted Solar Flux, Planetary A Index and Sunspot Numbers.

Deuce is just importing the messages as they're sent from the ARRL with minimal reformatting.
--
digital man (rob)

Synchronet/BBS Terminology Definition #31:
FF = Form Feed (ASCII 12, Ctrl-L)
Norco, CA WX: 96.4øF, 30.0% humidity, 3 mph W wind, 0.00 inches rain/24hrs
---
þ Synchronet þ Vertrauen þ Home of Synchronet þ [vert/cvs/bbs].synchro.net

Re: The K7RA Solar Update
By: Digital Man to Mortar on Mon Sep 09 2024 11:25:57

Deuce is just importing the messages as they're sent from the ARRL with minimal reformatting.

Don't know who Deuce is, but I get yer meaning. Which means I need to go to the source. I did see an email addr. to send comments, etc. I'll try that.

Thanks.

---
þ Synchronet þ End Of The Line BBS - endofthelinebbs.com

Re: The K7RA Solar Update
By: Mortar to Digital Man on Mon Sep 09 2024 08:50 pm

Re: The K7RA Solar Update
By: Digital Man to Mortar on Mon Sep 09 2024 11:25:57

Deuce is just importing the messages as they're sent from the ARRL with minimal reformatting.

Don't know who Deuce is, but I get yer meaning. Which means I need to go to the source. I did see an email addr. to send comments, etc. I'll try that.

The messages you're referring to are imoprted from the AARL by WLARB (Whisky Lovers Amateur Radio BBS), which was created by Deuce (then K6BSD, now W8BSD).
--
digital man (rob)

Breaking Bad quote #10:
Get a big old raging hard-on at the idea of catching this piece of shit! - Hank Norco, CA WX: 93.6øF, 23.0% humidity, 8 mph W wind, 0.00 inches rain/24hrs
---
þ Synchronet þ Vertrauen þ Home of Synchronet þ [vert/cvs/bbs].synchro.net

09/13/2024

With sunspot numbers up and solar flux decreasing, we saw ten new
sunspot groups this week; two on September 6, three on September 7,
two on September 8, one on September 9, and two on September 11.

Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 155.3 to 178.4, while
average daily solar flux declined from 230.3 to 223.7.

Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, with average daily planetary A
index dropping from 14 to 7.9 and middle latitude numbers from 12.7
to 11.7.

The solar flux forecast calls for 10.7 cm numbers at 210 on
September 13-14, 205 on September 15-20, then 225 and 220 on
September 21-22, then 225 on September 23-24, then 230, 235, 230 and
225 on September 25-28, and 240 on September 29-30, then 240, 245
and 230 on October 1-3, 220 on October 4-5, 225 on October 6-7, 220
on October 8-9, 225 on October 10-11, 220 and 215 on October 12-13,
210 on October 14-15, then back up to 240 at the end of the month.

Predicted planetary A index is 35 and 25 on September 13-14, then 15
on September 15-16, then 12, 15, 12 and 12 on September 17-20, 5 on
September 21-25, then 25, 25, 15 and 10 on September 26-29, then 5
on September 30 through October 4, 10 on October 5-6, then 30, 22
and 8 on October 7-9, 5 on October 10-13, 8 on October 14-15, and 5
on October 16-22, then 25 on October 23-24.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - September 11, 2024 from OK1HH:

"The solar wind speed, as measured in geostationary orbit, increased
in two jumps on 12 September - first shortly after midnight UTC from
360 km/s to 430 km/s, then to 520 km/s after 0818 UTC. Meanwhile,
the polarity of the longitudinal (north-south) component of the IMF
(Bz) was negative. The consequence was a significant deterioration
of shortwave propagation conditions.

"The development continued on 12 September as the X1.3 solar flare
was detected at 0943 UTC. The source was a new AR turning into view
off the southeast limb (former AR 3792, whose high activity during
the parade on the Sun's far side was well known thanks to
helioseismological observations).

"However, the strong (G3) Geomagnetic Storm followed, while
threshold was reached at 14:43 UTC. Values of critical frequencies
f0F2 in the mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere of the earth
were 2 MHz lower compared to the previous days. Now it can be
expected geomagnetic disturbance around September 14 (possible
arrival of particles from the September 11 CME). We may wait until
September 18 for quiet days."

WP3GW wrote:

"After a 4 month hiatus, just began again on FT8. I have noted that
the SFI has been more than 200, and have worked European stations at
about 2200 UTC, three hours after propagation normally closes to the
Caribbean.

"And have seen signals late night and in mornings before the Sun
comes up in 10 meters, making it a twenty plus hours open band. Have
made 7 new countries on FT8 in almost 3 weeks.

"Hope these conditions keep good for this contest season.

"Cheers, Angel Santana WP3GW."

Jeff, N8II wrote:

"There have been somewhat limited openings to Europe on 10 meters
for about 2 weeks. On Monday September 2 I worked several Southern
EU and several UK stations, some with good signals. Today, the 8th
was exceptionally good. Not only was the 10 meter band open to all
but possibly NE Europe, but stations in the Middle East were S9 to
S9+20 dB. On SSB I worked A42K, Oman, and 4K6FO, Azerbaijan. Also,
UA9CTT, Asiatic Russia was S9+20 dB and UN4L, Kazakhstan was peaking S8 all of them working the All Asia Contest. I called CQ with the
majority of my callers from the UK all with good signals, many over
S9. The only somewhat weak Brit was a mobile running 5W who was
peaking S5. OH6TS, Finland answered my CQ, and I heard SM5CAK,
Sweden over S9. I was also called by Hungary and Romania. It was
like the middle of October on a good day, very surprising 2 weeks
before the equinox. All of my QSOs were between 1400-1520Z. I also
worked JE6RFM on 15M SSB during that time and heard a JA5 about S7.
There was an Indonesian also on 15M working the Asian contest who
was S9+.

"The Summer has been frustrating with very limited activity except
in contests above 20M. 20M was open through most of the night to
Europe throughout the June-August period.

"The sporadic-E was poor this year, fewer openings and mostly single
hop. Every day 10M was open to Central and South America. Around the
middle of August, we started getting daily openings to the West
Coast. Since then, most days were open to AF and OC. Hawaii has been
loud on several occasions including the NAQP Phone test 2nd weekend
of August and was also briefly loud during the Hawaii QP last
weekend of August.

"Today September 12 there was a good F2 opening to EU; I worked two
R4s (next to Asia), several SP, DL, I, HB9, F.ÿ YL3BF called and was
about S4-6. The UK was not part of the opening. One of the Germans
was running 15W to a 5M long indoor wire and was peaking S9!"

The latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, Space Weather Woman:

https://youtu.be/RHphr4iloHs[1]

Impressive sunspots:

https://bit.ly/3zjgI8o[2]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[3]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt [9]"Understanding Solar Indices" from September
2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for September 5 through 11 2024 were 167, 188, 179,
176, 213, 147, and 179, with a mean of 178.4. 10.7 cm flux was
240.7, 248.9, 221.7, 227.6, 214.8, 205.2, and 207, with a mean of
223.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 7, 9, 9, 7, and 8,
with a mean of 7.9. Middle latitude A Index was 8, 8, 9, 19, 9, 7,
and 18, with a mean of 11.1.
ÿ


[1] https://youtu.be/RHphr4iloHs
[2] https://bit.ly/3zjgI8o
[3] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

Re: The K7RA Solar Update
By: Mortar to Digital Man on Mon Sep 09 2024 08:50 pm

Don't know who Deuce is, ...

That made me giggle... LOL

---
þ Synchronet þ Telegraph BBS - Fayette Co, OH USA

Don't know who Deuce is, ...

He's one of the maintainers of the synchronet software, as well as
syncterm, some of the js doors, and other software.

If you need to contact him, it is usually best to try in the synchronet IRC channel.


* SLMR 2.1a * Catastrophe n. an award for the cat with the nicest buns
---
þ Synchronet þ CAPCITY2 * capcity2.synchro.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/Rlogin/HTTP

09/20/2024

Solar activity was quiet over the past week, but geomagnetic numbers
were way, way up.

Average daily sunspot numbers dropped from 178.4 to 120, and average
daily solar flux from 223.7 to 175.7.

Average daily planetary A index rocketed from 7.9 to 35.7, and
middle latitude numbers from 11.1 to 23.4.

Six new sunspot groups emerged over the past week; one each on
September 13 and 14, two on September 16, and two each on September
17 and 18.

Predicted solar flux is 160 and 155 on September 20-21, 150 on
September 22-26, then a huge leap to 230 and 225 on September 27-28,
240 on September 29 through October 2, 230 on October 3, 220 on
October 4-5, then 215, 205 and 207 on October 6-8, 201, 186 and 172
on October 9-11, 173 and 175 on October 12-13, 170 on October 14-16,
165 on October 17-18, 170 on October 19, 225 on October 20-21, then
230, 225, 230 and 225 on October 22-25, then 240 on October 26-29.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10 and 8 on September 20-22, 5 on
September 23-26, then 25, 15 and 10 on September 27-29, then 5 on
September 30 through October 4, 10 on October 5-6, and 5 on October
7-9, 10 on October 10, 20 on October 11-13, 15 on October 14, 10 on
October 15-16, then 5 on October 17-22, 25 on October 23-24, and 15
and 10 on October 25-26.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - September 19, 2024 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Overall solar activity has decreased slightly in recent days, but
before that AR3825 produced energetic flares, including two of the
largest: X1.3 on September 12th and a very strong X4.5 on September
14th. The arrival of the CMEs and the onset of the disturbance,
expected on the afternoon of UT Sept 16th, was delayed and
registered as an influx of protons in the solar wind at 22:44 UT
Sept 16th. After that, a geomagnetic disturbance started to develop,
which significantly affected the shortwave propagation conditions,
especially on 17 September.

"A more pronounced upsurge in solar flux can be expected once the
large active regions known to be present through helioseismology
start to reappear at the eastern limb of the solar disk. This should
happen around 26 September. However, a repeat of the August 28-29
disturbance is expected in the same period. Therefore, an
improvement in propagation conditions can be expected before
September 26, or better yet, shortly during the onset of the
disturbance-after which a deterioration will occur."

New STCE newsletter:

https://www.stce.be/newsletter/newsletter.php[1]

The latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/o0HWm0W-YRw[2]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[3]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for September 12 through 18 2024 were 160, 127, 136,
68, 103, 140, and 106, with a mean of 120. 10.7 cm flux was 201.2,
185.8, 172.4, 172.8, 169.2, 165.4, and 163.3, with a mean of 175.7.
Estimated planetary A indices were 67, 37, 21, 19, 23, 71, and 12,
with a mean of 35.7. Middle latitude A Index was 36, 22, 22, 16, 19,
39, and 10, with a mean of 23.4.

ÿ


[1] https://www.stce.be/newsletter/newsletter.php
[2] https://youtu.be/o0HWm0W-YRw
[3] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/27/2024

Seven sunspot groups emerged this week. The first was on September
19, three on September 20, one each on September 22 and 23, and the
last on September 25.

Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 120 to 137.2, and
average daily solar flux shifted from 175.7 to 164.3.

Geomagnetic numbers were much quieter. Average daily planetary A
index changed from 35.7 to 14.3, and middle latitude A index from
23.4 to 10.7.

Predicted solar flux is 180 September 27 to October 1, 190 on
October 2-6, 185 on October 7-9, 180 on October 10, 175 on October
11-16, 170 on October 17-18, 165 on October 19, 160 on October
20-23, 165 on October 24-26, then 170 and 175 on October 27-28, 180
on October 29-30, and 190 on October 31 through November 2.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on September 27-28, 8 on September
29-30, 5 on October 1-4, 10 on October 5-6, 5 on October 7-9, then
10, 20 and 19 on October 10-12, and 5 on October 13-21, 8 on October
22-23, 5 on October 24-31, and 8 on November 1-2.

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - September 26, 2024 from OK1HH:

"Solar flare activity is generally lower than it was in the first
half of September, when M-class solar flares were common and X-class
flares also occurred. The last significant M-class flare, including
a CME, was observed on September 22. However, the Earth's magnetic
field activity increased on September 25-26, incidentally in good
agreement with the forecast.

"Propagation conditions, especially in the shorter half of the
shortwave range, have understandably improved, but not as much as we
might have expected in the run-up to the equinox. This was
influenced by a decrease in solar activity (compared to August
levels) - and of course an increase in geomagnetic activity.

"Unlike in times relatively recently past, any of us can monitor not
only total solar activity, but also changes in solar wind
parameters. Both its speed and the concentration of free electrons
and protons ejected by flares. Changes in the ionosphere follow
quickly, but not always in the same way. It is also always the
result of previous developments."

Latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/B9jWbAVEpZw[1]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[2]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[3] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7] .

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[8] "Understanding Solar Indices" from September
2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9] .

Sunspot numbers for September 19 through 25 2024 were 109, 113, 117,
114, 224, 123, and 160, with a mean of 137.1. 10.7 cm flux was
161.2, 153.8, 158, 162.8, 167.4, 172.4, and 174.2, with a mean of
164.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 20, 7, 6, 5, 13, 17, and
32, with a mean of 14.3. Middle latitude A Index was 15, 6, 6, 3, 9,
12, and 24, with a mean of 10.7.


[1] https://youtu.be/B9jWbAVEpZw
[2] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[3] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/04/2024

ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0042UT/04 OCTOBER 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

Two coronal mass ejections first observed on 01-Oct and 03-Oct are
expected to impact Earth over 04-05 Oct. Lack of analyzable corona
graph imagery makes arrival time predictions uncertain.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 04-06 OCTOBER 2024.

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST:
04 Oct:ÿ G3, chance of G4
05 Oct:ÿ G3, chance of G4
06 Oct:ÿ G1-G2

New sunspot groups emerged on every day over the past week. Two new
regions appeared on September 26, another on September 27, two more
on September 28, another on September 29, another on September 30,
three more on October 1 and another on October 2, for a total of
eleven.

Average daily sunspot number rose from 137.1 to 164.7, and average
daily solar flux from 164.3 to 213.1. Average daily planetary A
index shifted from 14.3 to 9.6.

Predicted solar flux is 310 on October 4-6, 300 on October 7, 290 on
October 8-10, 175 on October 11-16, 170 on October 17-21, then 175,
180, 185, 190 and 195 on October 22-26, then 200 on October 27-29,
205 on October 30 through November 4, then 200 and 185 on November
5-6 and 175 on November 7-12.

Predicted planetary A index is 54, 94, 72, 22 and 15 on October 4-8,
5 on October 9-10, then 20 and 19 on October 11-12, then 5 on
October 13-21, then 28 and 10 on October 22-23, 5 on October 24-26,
and 10 on October 27, then 5 on October 28-31, 10 on November 1-2, 5
on November 3-5, then 10, 20, and 19 on November 6-8, and 5 on
November 9 and the foreseeable future.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - October 3, 2024 from OK1HH:

"After AR3811 disappeared from our field of view behind the
southwestern limb of the solar disk on September 12, it was
continuously tracked by helioseismological methods until September
29, when it reappeared in the southeast, numbered AR3842. Its size
and activity on the far side of the Sun suggested that we could look
forward to a lot of activity in October.

"And so, it did. When solar flare X7.1/2b was observed on October 1
with a maximum at 2220 UT, the second largest in the current 11-year
cycle, I planned to start with this announcement. But when flare
X9.05, newly the largest in X-ray intensity in the same AR3842, was
observed on October 3 at 1218 UT, that was no longer the case.

"The source region of AR3842 was heading straight towards us. So,
the plasma cloud was probably heading directly for our ionosphere.
Unlike the aforementioned X7.1/2b (which thus moved to the third
largest), it is very likely that the CME of October 3 will hit
Earth. We therefore expect a disrupted end of the week.

"This weekend we can expect low MUF and high LUF on shortwave and
QSOs over aurora on VHF. Early next week will see a gradual return
to average and then above average radio wave propagation conditions
in the ionosphere."

From "The New Zealand Herald," Aurora in Auckland:

https://bit.ly/3NcNOde[1]

Radio Blackout hits U.S.:

https://bit.ly/3zNlkno[2]

https://www.space.com/sun-monster-solar-flare-x7-video[3]

Here is the latest update from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/QDf6eyTCbe4[4]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt [11]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

Sunspot numbers for September 26 through October 2 2024 were 189,
122, 148, 154, 150, 196, and 194, with a mean of 164.7. 10.7 cm flux
was 181.1, 186, 194.5, 197.2, 214.2, 244.6, and 274.4, with a mean
of 213.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 7, 7, 16, 11, 6,
and 7, with a mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A Index was 11, 5, 5, 17,
5, 9, and 6, with a mean of 8.3.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3NcNOde
[2] https://bit.ly/3zNlkno
[3] https://www.space.com/sun-monster-solar-flare-x7-video
[4] https://youtu.be/QDf6eyTCbe4
[5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/14/2024

Thanks to Carl, K9LA for contributing to this week's bulletin.

"SUBJ: ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2220 UTC/10 OCTOBER 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"A halo CME first observed on 09-Oct arrived at Earth at 10/1515UT, resulting in G4 geomagnetic conditions on 10-Oct. G4 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 11-Oct, with a chance of G5. G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 12-Oct, with a chance of G3 due to ongoing CME effects.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 11-13 OCTOBER 2024

"GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST

11 Oct: G4, chance of G5

12 Oct: G2, chance of G3

13 Oct: G0-G1"

Only four new sunspot groups emerged this week. The first was on October 4, another on October 6 and two more on October 7.

Average daily sunspot number moved from 160 (Sep 26-Oct 2 period) to 182 (Oct 3-9 period), and average daily solar flux from 199 to 270.

Predicted solar flux is 215 on October 11-13, 210 on October 14-15, 200 and 205 on October 16-17, and 170 on October 18-21, then 175, 180, 185, 190, 195, 215, 230, 240, 250 and 255 on October 22-31, then 230 and 215 on November 1-2, then 205 on November 3-4, 200 and 185 on November 5-6, 175 on November 7-12, and 170 on November 13-17.

Predicted planetary A index reveals a huge disturbance at 122, 42, 12 and 12 on October 11-14, 5 on October 15-21, then 15, 10, 5, 5, 12 and 8 on October 22-27, 5 on October 28 til November 2, 12 and 8 on November 3-4, 5 on November 5-7, 8 on November 8, and 5 on November 9-17.

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for October 10, 2024 from OK1HH.

"During the first ten days of October, the number of sunspot groups dropped from eleven to five, but the eruptive activity of the two largest sunspot groups did not decrease. Not only are moderate flares (M-classes, of which 34 were observed) frequent, but large events (X-classes) are also relatively common (five effects were observed, including one proton flare on 9 October). Several CMEs (coronal mass ejections) were also observed.

"After the two most active regions in particular moved to the western half of the solar disk, geomagnetic activity has increased significantly since 6 October. The most significant impacts on the state of the ionosphere were on 8 October. This will be followed by a very slow return to normal, lasting several days. A calm development can be expected after mid-October."

Reader Allison King sent this: https://nyti.ms/3YiNZtP[1]

David Moore sent this. A new era of solar observation: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/10/241003145438.htm[2]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[3]. ÿWhen reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] ÿand the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5] ÿ

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] ÿ.

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8]

Also, check this. "Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST. https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for October 3 through 9 2024 were 194, 229, 180, 173, 167, 164, and 165, with a mean of 182. 10.7 cm flux was 245, 312, 291, 277, 265, 277 and 225, with a mean of 270. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 8, 7, 16, 55, 58, and 19, with a mean of 24.4. Middle latitude A Index was 8, 6, 8, 13, 33, 29, and 15, with a mean of 16.


[1] https://nyti.ms/3YiNZtP
[2] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/10/241003145438.htm
[3] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/18/2024

Average daily sunspot numbers changed from 160 to 129.3 and average
daily solar flux from 261.3 to 194.3. Geomagnetic numbers were
higher, with planetary A index rising from 21.4 to 39.3.

Seven new sunspot groups emerged this week, with two on October 10,
two on October 13, two more October 14 and one more on October 15.

Predicted solar flux is 170, 160, and 165 on October 18-20, 170 on
October 21-22, 165 on October 23-24, 220 on October 25-26, then 225,
245, 235, 260, 245 and 235 on October 27 through November 1, and 230
on November 2-3, then 225 and 220 on November 4-5, 215 on November
6-8, 210 on November 9, 200 on November 10-12, and 205 on November
13-14 and 210 on November 15-17.

Predicted planetary A index is 15, 18, 12 and 5 on October 18-21,
then 15, 12 and 5 on October 22-24, then 5, 1, 2 and 8 on October
25-27, then 5 on October 28 to November 8, then 10 on November 9-10,
then 5 on November 11-12, 8 on November 13 and 5 on November 14-17.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - October 17, 2024 from OK1HH:

"A week ago, we witnessed a strong geomagnetic disturbance. It
peaked on 10 October and its effects in the ionosphere were
particularly evident on 11 October. The recovery from the
disturbance continued until 14 October, but was interrupted by a
further rise in geomagnetic activity on 15-16 October.

"Ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions were generally poor
throughout the period. They did not even improve to average levels.
This development was due to the coincidence with a decrease in total
solar activity."

The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/warCdMmyE98[1]

An article on the peak of Solar Cycle 25:

https://www.inceptivemind.com/blurb/sun-reaches-maximum-phase-11-year-solar-cyc le/[2]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[3]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for October 10 through 16 2024 were 150, 130, 95,
108, 146, 141, and 135, with a mean of 129.3. 10.7 cm flux was
216.3, 213.9, 213.6, 194.9, 181.9, 172, and 167.7, with a mean of
194.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 96, 116, 20, 5, 8, 15, and
15, with a mean of 30.3. Middle latitude A Index was 50, 68, 16, 3,
6, 9, and 11, with a mean of 23.3.

ÿ


[1] https://youtu.be/warCdMmyE98
[2] https://www.inceptivemind.com/blurb/sun-reaches-maximum-phase-11-year-solar-cycle/
[3] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/25/2024

Key solar indicators were lower this week, with average daily solar
flux down from 194.3 to 170.5 and average daily sunspot numbers
declining from 129.3 to 127.7.

On October 22, Spaceweather.com[1] reported:

"THE SUN IS TAKING A QUICK BREAK: Solar Max is hard work. Just ask
the Sun. After flaring almost without pause for the past 10 months,
the Sun is taking a quick break. Solar activity has been low for the
past 48 hours with no flares stronger than category C. The quiet
won't last. Solar Max is expected to continue for at least another
year; flaring should resume shortly."

Predicted solar flux is 200 on October 25-26, then 205 and 215 on
October 27-28, then 220 on October 29-31, then 180, 185, 180 and 175
on November 1-4, 180 on November 5-6, 185 on November 7-8, 180 on
November 9, 175 on November 10-12, then 180 and 175 on November
13-14, 170 on November 15-16, 165 on November 17-18, and 160 and 165 on November 19-20.

Predicted planetary A index is 15, 18 and 7 on October 25-27, then 8
on October 28-29, 5 0n October 30 through November 10, then 12, 12,
8, 5, 12, 10, 5, 15 and 10 on November 11-19, and 5 on November
20-21, 12 on November 22 and 5 on November 23-30.

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - October 24, 2024 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"NASA and NOAA announced in a joint statement on October 15, 2024
that a solar maximum is underway. This phase of the cycle may take 2
to 3 years to develop. For shortwave propagation, this implies that
the regular openings of the shortest bands will continue at least
through 2025, possibly longer.

"The author of these lines considers it likely that the current
11-year cycle will have two peaks, the first of which is taking
place now. In that case, we could expect the second peak in 2025.

"Coronagraphs aboard artificial Earth satellites provide invaluable
data for predicting solar activity. The Solar and Heliospheric
Observatory (SOHO) has been in operation for an unexpectedly long
time - it was launched in December 1995! Fortunately, the Sun is
still being similarly observed by GOES-19, although it is still
undergoing testing with instrument checks, including the
coronagraph, which we expect to be in regular use from Spring 2025.

"In the last two weeks or so, we have been able to observe the size
of AR3842 and AR3844 on the Sun's far side.

"AR3844, meanwhile, emerged on the southeastern limb of the solar
disk, was renamed AR3869, and immediately made itself known with a
powerful solar flare of class X3.3. It happened on October 24, with
the peak of the event at 0357 UT. The extreme ultraviolet radiation
from the flare ionized the upper part of the Earth's atmosphere. The
Dellinger effect knocked out shortwaves to 30 MHz for nearly an hour
in the Australia and Southeast Asia region. The current CME has left
the Sun, but is unlikely to hit Earth (if it does, it could happen
on October 26).

"After the eruption, due to the increase in ionization of the
ionospheric F2 region between 0910 - 1050 UT, the 50 MHz magic band
between central and southern Europe and Japan (especially the
southern half of its large islands) was opened. However, the vast
majority of contacts were established at 50313 kHz (WSJT-X, FT8)."

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[2]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[3] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7] .

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[8]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9] .

Sunspot numbers for October 17 through 23 2024 were 146, 132, 101,
113, 168, 130, and 104, with a mean of 127.7. 10.7 cm flux was
167.7, 173.5, 165.2, 161.7, 163.9, 176.1, and 185.7, with a mean of
170.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 14, 23, 7, 5, 8, and 9,
with a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A Index was 7, 10, 15, 6, 3, 7,
and 7, with a mean of 7.9.

ÿ


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[3] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

11/01/2024

Solar activity increased this week. Average daily sunspot number
went from 127.7 to 197.4 and average solar flux from 170.5 to 240.2.

Predicted solar flux is 270 on November 1-2, 265 and 260 on November
3-4, 250 on November 5-7, 214, 195 and 182 on November 8-10, 172,
168, 174 and 165 on November 11-14, and 162 on November 15-16.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, 15, and 10 on November 1-4, 5
on November 5-15, then 5, 8, 5, 12, and 8 on November 16-20, and 5
on November 21 through December 5

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - October 31, 2024 from OK1HH:

"We know only approximately what the Earth's ionosphere looked like
between March 1755 and June 1766 thanks to observations of the Sun
in Solar Cycle 1. But we do know what it looked like in Solar Cycle
19, which ran from April 1954 to October 1964. Although I was a
novice radio amateur at the time, I can testify that the shortwave
propagation conditions at the peak of Solar Cycle 19 (1958) were
wonderful!

"As of December 2019, Solar Cycle 25 is in operation. It was
supposed to be low, fortunately it is not. Its maximum is now
underway, perhaps a second will follow next year. It is fabulous,
judging by the above and the many interesting effects, including,
for example, auroras. But unfortunately, not if we judge them by the
current conditions of ionospheric shortwave propagation. An
explanation of why this is now the case will surely be forthcoming -
but perhaps Solar Cycle 26 will be underway.

"A week ago, as expected, large active regions and corresponding
groups of spots appeared at the southeastern limb of the solar disk.
We are now seeing them near the central meridian. This has increased
the likelihood of Earth being hit by particles that will eject
subsequent flares. It seems that not only these, but also
disturbances in the geomagnetic field and then fluctuations in the
ionospheric propagation field can be counted on with certainty in
the coming days. Given that we have already seen simultaneously
observed active regions on the Sun during the last solar rotation,
presumably a 27-day recurrence will be a good aid to prediction."

How NASA tracks the Solar Cycles:

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x98c2di[1]

The latest from the Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence
Newsletter:

https://www.stce.be/newsletter/newsletter.php[2]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[3]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation [7]. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for October 24 through 30 2024 were 138, 157, 181,
198, 288, 220, and 200, with a mean of 197.4. 10.7 cm flux was
196.6, 209.3, 238.4, 246.2, 255.5, 265.6, and 269.8, with a mean of
240.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 3, 14, 10, 17, 12, and
15, with a mean of 12. Middle latitude A Index was 10, 2, 11, 8, 11,
10, and 10, with a mean of 8.9.

ÿ


[1] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x98c2di
[2] https://www.stce.be/newsletter/newsletter.php
[3] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

11/15/2024

Only five new sunspot groups emerged this week. First was on
November 7, next on November 9, two more on November 11, and another
on November 13.

Average daily sunspot number declined from 193.4 to 141.6, while
average daily solar flux went from 248.4 to 203.7.

Predicted solar flux is 145 on November 15-16, 155 on November
17-18, then 145 on November 19, 140 November 20-21, then 235, 240,
255 and 260 on November 22-25, 270 on November 26-27, then 255 and
250 on November 28-29, 240 on November 30 and December 1, 230 on
December 2-3, and 225 and 220 on December 4-5, then 225 on December 6-7, and 175, 170, and 175 on December 8-10, then 165 on December 11-14, 178 and 185 on December 15-16, 200 on December 17-18, then 235, 240, 255 and 260 on December 19-22.

Estimated planetary A index is 12, 10, 8, 12 and 8 on November
15-19, 5 on November 20-24, 10 on November 25-26, then 8, 5, 5 and
10 on November 27-30, then 12, 9, 8, 7 and 5 on December 1-5, 12 on
December 6-8, then 8, 12 and 10 on December 9-11, 8 on December
12-13, then 5, 8, 5 and 12 on December 14-17.

From HMI Science Nuggets, a possible explanation for solar cycle
double peaks:

http://hmi.stanford.edu/hminuggets/?p=2685[1]

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - November 14, 2024, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Of the three active regions in the past few days, two have fallen
behind the western limb of the solar disk. Therefore, the solar flux
has dropped significantly. The third sunspot group was AR3889, which
crossed the central meridian midweek. Its size of over 400
millionths of the solar disk area, and in particular the optical 'F'
and magnetic 'Beta-Gamma-Delta' configurations, indicate that the
production of moderate size flares will continue. So, because it is
in the west, like most coronal holes, the solar wind should
intensify, and the Earth's magnetic field activity should increase.

"This development, in fact, has already begun on November 14. First,
conditions worsened after the polarity of the longitudinal component
of the interplanetary magnetic field changed to negative between
0200-0500 UTC, while the density of protons in the solar wind
increased. This was correctly followed by an increase in its
velocity from 350 km/s to 440 km/s. Due to the anticipated increase
in the solar wind, a further several days of turbulence is expected,
followed by calming down only during the following week."

The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/lGpDztCtTwY[2]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[3]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for November 7 through 13, 2024 were 164, 167, 176,
121, 138, 116, and 109, with a mean of 141.6. 10.7 cm flux was
239.2, 231, 220.9, 230.6, 182.2, 171.7, and 150.3, with a mean of
203.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 11, 32, 25, 10, 5, and
7, with a mean of 14.1. Middle latitude A Index was 7, 7, 24, 15, 7,
4, and 5, with a mean of 9.9.
ÿ


[1] http://hmi.stanford.edu/hminuggets/?p=2685
[2] https://youtu.be/lGpDztCtTwY
[3] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

11/22/2024

Solar activity was lower this reporting week, November 14-20, with
the average daily sunspot number down from 141.6 to 99.3, and solar
flux from 203.7 to 152.4. Geomagnetic indicators were quiet.

This follows a period during August and October when it seemed we
must be at the peak of Solar Cycle 25. But we won't know that until
nearly a year after solar max, when a long moving average of daily
sunspot numbers is examined.

Predicted solar flux is 170 on November 22, 175 on November 23-24,
180 on November 25-26, 175 and 180 on November 27-28, 250 on
November 29-30, then 240, 230, 220, and 210 on December 1-4, 205 on
December 5-6, then 200, 180, 170 and 150 on December 7-10, 145 on
December 11-12, then 149, 145, and 230 on December 13-15, 235 on
December 16-17, 240 on December 18-20, 245 on December 21-22, then
240, 245 and 255 on December 23-25.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on November 22-25, 5 on November
26-29, then 10, 12, 9, 8, 7 and 5 on November 30 through December 5,
12 on December 6-7, then 10, 5, 5, 10, 15 and 10 on November 8-13,
then 8 on December 14-15, then 5 and 12 on December 16-17, and 5 on
December 18-21.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - November 21, 2024, from F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"During November, solar activity was relatively lowest in the middle
of the month, which happened after the large sunspot groups in the
west of the disk had set and before the larger groups in the east
came out. The largest of these is designated AR3901 and will pass
through the central meridian on November 23. Solar activity will
therefore still increase slightly. A more significant rise could
perhaps be expected after the rise of the other groups, but their
current activity on the far side of the Sun does not appear to be
great for now.

"The low number and small area of coronal holes are the likely cause
of the geomagnetically quieter development, which is likely to
continue.

"November belongs to the Autumn DX season, Therefore we can expect
continued above-average shortwave propagation. They were admittedly
a little worse as a result of the drop in solar radiation, but the
rest of the month could, yet, correct this. Which is true for the
northern hemisphere of the Earth, where the season of favorable
propagation conditions on the longer shortwave bands is already
beginning!"

Images from the European Space Agency:

https://tinyurl.com/42r665y9[1]

From "Space Daily," solar orbiter images:

https://tinyurl.com/bdz33ake[2]

https://tinyurl.com/yvkf66u2[3]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[4]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[10]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

Sunspot numbers for November 14 through 20, 2024 were 96, 71, 71,
117, 118, 109, and 113, with a mean of 99.3. 10.7 cm flux was 146.8,
148.9, 139.9, 146.3, 165, 157.2, and 162.6, with a mean of 152.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 13, 8, 8, 4, 9, and 9, with a
mean of 8.9. Middle latitude A Index was 10, 10, 8, 6, 3, 6, and 8,
with a mean of 7.3.

ÿ


[1] https://tinyurl.com/42r665y9
[2] https://tinyurl.com/bdz33ake
[3] https://tinyurl.com/yvkf66u2
[4] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] http://k9la.us/
[10] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/02/2024

ARRL Headquarters was closed on November 29. So, this regular Friday
bulletin was moved to the following Monday (12/2).

Solar activity increased during the current reporting week, November
21-27. Average daily sunspot number rose to 155.7, and average daily
solar flux was 282.2.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - November 28, 2024, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"After the unexpected solar proton flare of 21 November, which took
place beyond the Sun's western limb, a rain of higher-energy protons
hit the Earth's atmosphere. This solar radiation storm had a greater
impact at higher latitudes in the southern hemisphere, where it
caused a significant increase in attenuation.

"Two days later, two new large sunspot groups appeared near the
southeastern limb of the Sun. These produced moderate eruptions
daily, which is more or less normal for the 11-year maximum. These
are AR3905 and AR3906, which have grown rapidly to a size where they
can be observed with the naked eye. There is a relatively small
coronal hole near them that could be influencing the solar wind
enhancement.

"Following the eruption of a plasma filament near AR3901, a G2 class geomagnetic storm is possible on November 28-29, when a CME is
expected to impact. However, around 1900 UT on November 28, when
this information is written as usual, nothing is still happening. We
will see what happens next. It is quite possible that the plasma
cloud will only hit the Earth a little and it is also not out of the
question that it will miss the Earth completely. So, any prediction
at this point has a low probability of coming true."

New video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/1P4sCwn8TZI[1]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[2]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[3] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[8]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9] .

Sunspot numbers for November 21 through 27, 2024 were 148, 170, 156,
164, 140, 163, and 141, with a mean of 155.7. 10.7 cm flux was
166.2, 179.1, 199.9, 202.7, 220.4, 222.3, and 225, with a mean of
202.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 12, 8, 7, 11, 7, and 5,
with a mean of 8.3. Middle latitude A Index was 5, 10, 7, 7, 9, 6,
and 3, with a mean of 6.7.
ÿ


[1] https://youtu.be/1P4sCwn8TZI
[2] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[3] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/06/2024

Solar activity seems to have dropped dramatically from a recent peak.ÿ Are we over the cycle peak and headed down again?ÿ Too early to say.

Daily average sunspot numbers this week sank to 120.1.

Predicted solar flux is 175 on December 6 to 8, 170 on December 9 and 10, 175 on December 11 and 12, and 205 on December 13 to 17.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on December 6 and 7, 5 on December to 12, 10, 8 and 5 on December 13 to 15, 8 on December 16 to 18, 12 and 8 on December 19 and 20 and 5 on December 21 through January 6, 2025.

Commentary from OK1HH:

"After the unexpected solar proton flare of 21 November, which took place beyond the Sun's western limb, a rain of higher-energy protons hit the Earth's atmosphere.ÿ This solar radiation storm had a greater impact at higher latitudes in the southern hemisphere, where it caused a significant increase in attenuation.

"Two days later, two new large sunspot groups appeared near the southeastern limb of the Sun.ÿ These produced moderate eruptions daily, which is more or less normal for the 11-year maximum.ÿ These are AR3905 and AR3906, which have grown rapidly to a size where they can be observed with the naked eye.ÿ There is a relatively small coronal hole near them that could be influencing the solar wind enhancement.

"Following the eruption of a plasma filament near AR3901, a G2 class geomagnetic storm is possible on November 28 and 29, when a CME is expected to impact.ÿ However, around 1900 UT on November 28, when this information is written as usual, nothing is still happening. We will see what happens next.
It is quite possible that the plasma cloud will only hit the Earth a little and it is also not out of the question that it will miss the Earth completely.ÿ So any prediction at this point has a low probability of coming true."

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[1].ÿ When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[2] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3] .

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5]ÿ

More good information and tutorials are at http://k9la.us/[6].

Also, check "Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[7] .

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8] .

ÿSunspot numbers for November 28 through December 4, 2024 were 149, 162, 103, 83, 113, 126, and 105, with a mean of 120.1.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 213.9, 219.8, 204, 186.3, 185.3, 174.2, and 174.7, with a mean of 202.2.ÿ Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 8, 11, 7, 6, 13, and 7, with a mean of 8.3.ÿ Middle latitude A Index was 3, 6, 9, 6, 6, 6, 10, and 5, with a mean of 6.


[1] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[2] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[6] http://k9la.us/
[7] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

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þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

Re: The K7RA Solar Update
By: ARRL de WD1CKS to QST on Fri Dec 06 2024 22:38:54

...AR3905 and AR3906, which have grown rapidly to a size where they can be observed with the naked eye.

But would you really want to?

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þ Synchronet þ End Of The Line BBS - endofthelinebbs.com

12/13/2024

Average daily sunspot number plummeted to 104.4.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for December 12, 2024 from OK1HH:

"The high solar activity in October this year suggests that this may have been the peak of an 11-year cycle.ÿ This is not to say that solar activity will not continue to rise.ÿ On the contrary, it may well be that the first maximum of the cycle took place in October and that we can look forward to a second maximum.ÿ This could take place in 2025 or 2026 at the latest, but it will be followed by a decline.

"Solar activity in November was lower and December's is even lower. The expected geomagnetic disturbance, predicted for 29 November, did not take place because the CME did not affect the Earth.ÿ However, the almost daily occurrence of moderate solar flares continued and a large flare occurred.ÿ It happened on 8 December at around 0906 UT. However, even after this eruption no major geomagnetic disturbance followed and the changes in ionospheric shortwave propagation were rather random."

In December, the Sun is quieter, and large sunspot groups do not occur in its photosphere.ÿ The only major active regions we see are to the south of the solar equator, and their area is about half that of those seen in November. However, the active area of AR3917 is slowly getting larger and with it the likelihood of a larger flare is increasing.

The Earth's ionosphere has been repeatedly affected in recent days by increased concentrations of solar-origin free electrons, which, while causing a slight rise in MUF, have been more pronounced in the ionosphere, causing scattering and hence attenuation, which has had a negative effect on the longer shortwave bands.

More meteors are arriving at Earth these days.ÿ The swarm is called the Geminids and most meteors should arrive about December 14. Therefore we can observe more frequent occurrences of the sporadic E layer.ÿ In addition to the occurrences of stronger signals on the longer shortwave bands, propagation through ionospheric waveguides is more frequent.ÿ The sporadic layer may not only form one of the walls of the waveguide, but also enable its termination. Which is a good chance, for example, for QRP devotees.

Predicted solar flux is 165 on December 13 to 15, 160 and 165 December 16 and 17, 160 on December 18 and 19, then 175, 185, and 190 on December 20 to 22, 185 on December 23 and 24, 180 on December 25 and 26, and 180 on December 30 through January 2, 2025.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 13 and 14, 8 on January 15 and 16, 5 on January 17 to 20, then 8 on January 29.

Flare blasts South Africa:ÿ https://bit.ly/3Do6nJJ[1]

STCE Newsletter Online version:

http://www.stce.be/newsletter/newsletter.php[2]

PDF version:

http://www.stce.be/newsletter/pdf/2024/STCEnews20241212.pdf[3]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@rrl.net[4].ÿ When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating. ÿ

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6] .

ÿFor an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] .

More information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9]

Check "Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST at https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[10] .

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

Sunspot numbers for December 5 through 11 2024 were 101, 103, 91, 103, 94, 125, 114, with a mean of 104.4.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 174.6, 177.5, 182.5, 177.7 172.5, 171.9, and 160.5 with a mean of 170.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 8, 11, 7, 6, 13, and 7, with a mean of 8.ÿ Middle latitude A Index was 3, 6, 9, 6, 6, 6, 10, and 5, with a mean of 7.3.ÿ ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3Do6nJJ
[2] http://www.stce.be/newsletter/newsletter.php
[3] http://www.stce.be/newsletter/pdf/2024/STCEnews20241212.pdf
[4] mailto:k7ra@rrl.net
[5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] http://k9la.us/
[10] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

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þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/20/2024

Excellent HF conditions greeted hams in the ARRL 10-Meter contest
last weekend. Recent indicators show a sudden shift to two digit
daily sunspot numbers from three, and although there is nothing
significant about 100, it makes one notice.

All daily sunspot numbers this week were 97 or less.

Perhaps this indicates a move off of solar maximum, or to a future
with a second maximum.

Solar activity was way, way down this week with an average daily
sunspot number at just 88.

Predicted solar flux is 175, 180, 180, 185 and 180 on December
20-24, 175 on December 25-26, 180 on December 27, 185 on December
28-29, 180 on December 30 through January 2, 2025, and 175 on
January 3-4, 170 on January 5-6, 160 on January 7-8, then 165, 179,
165, and 170 on January 9-12, 165 on January 13-14, 170 on January
15-16, 175 on January 17-18, 180 on January 19-23, and 185 on
January 24-25.

The forecast for Planetary A index shows a quiet 5 on December
20-22, 8 on December 23-24, and 5 on December 25 through January 4,
2025, then 15 and 8 on January 5-6, 5 on January 7-9, then 12, 10
and 8 on January 10-12, and 5 on January 13-31.

OK1HH does not seem to have a commentary this week.

The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/wClI7PKn3K0[1]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[2]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[3] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7] .

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[8]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9] .

Sunspot numbers for December 12 through 18 2024 were 91, 82, 86, 97,
90, 88, and 82 with a mean of 88. 10.7 cm flux was 172, 163.7,
170.5, 172, 166.7, 170, and 173.5 with a mean of 169.8. Estimated
planetary A indices were 6, 4, 10, 12, 14, 29, and 15, with a mean
of 12.9. Middle latitude A Index was 4, 2, 8, 9, 11, 20, and 12,
with a mean of 9.4.

ÿ


[1] https://youtu.be/wClI7PKn3K0
[2] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[3] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

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þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS